Arsenal Heads to Bilbao as Odds Favor Gunners in Champions League Opener
Athletic Club’s Basque-only recruitment, stout defense and San Mamés atmosphere make the hosts a live underdog despite long odds
Arsenal will open its 2025-26 Champions League campaign Tuesday night at Athletic Club’s Estadio de San Mamés, a match in which bookmakers list the visitors as favorites but where the Basque side’s defensive form and home atmosphere have made them a live underdog.
Arsenal arrive in Bilbao off a strong Premier League start, with three wins and one loss through four matches. The Gunners’ plus-eight goal difference has been buoyed by two 5-0 victories over Nottingham Forest and Leeds United, while their only heavy test so far ended in a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool; they also edged Manchester United in a narrow win. Athletic Club, meanwhile, opened the domestic campaign with a compact defensive record and the advantage of playing at San Mamés before a vociferous crowd.
The two clubs present contrasting strengths. Arsenal have shown offensive firepower in recent matches, while Athletic Club’s recruitment policy — signing players only from, or with connections to, the Basque Country — has produced a team long noted for its cohesion and passionate home support. Athletic has one of Spain’s most storied records, having never been relegated from the top flight, and routinely produces a strong defensive structure.
That defense has been prominent this season. According to New York Post coverage of the match, Athletic allowed four goals and 2.2 expected goals (xG) across four matches to open the domestic campaign, statistics that help explain confidence among home supporters and some observers that the match could be tighter than the market implies.
Betting markets have made Arsenal the odds-on favorite, but the New York Post’s betting coverage identified Athletic Club at roughly +320 at bet365 as the suggested play for those seeking an upset. The pick and commentary were offered by Michael Leboff, a New York Post betting analyst who has written about the matchup and the comparative market value of the available odds.
From a tactical perspective, Arsenal’s attack will be tested by Athletic’s organized defensive lines and the disruptive play of wide forwards such as Nico Williams. Arsenal rely on dynamic wide players and transitional speed to break down compact defenses; Bukayo Saka is one of the club’s primary attacking outlets and a figure to watch should Arsenal press to create openings.
The match also carries cultural and historical subtext. Athletic Club’s Basque-only recruitment model is an anomaly in modern professional football but remains a defining feature of the club’s identity and a contributor to its intense local support. San Mamés is widely regarded as one of Europe’s most intimidating venues for visiting teams, a factor that often narrows the gap between domestic form and European outcomes.
Tuesday’s game opens a Champions League group stage in which Arsenal will aim to establish continental credentials while Athletic Club will seek to capitalize on home advantage and defensive solidity. Kickoff is scheduled for Tuesday night in Bilbao, where the combination of a historic stadium and a disciplined home side could make the fixture closer than pre-match odds suggest.