BBC experts back Liverpool as favourites for 2025-26 Champions League

BBC Sport pundits, commentators and journalists have overwhelmingly backed Liverpool to win the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League, with Paris St-Germain, Real Madrid and Barcelona also regularly named among the contenders.

The competition resumes this week with a 36-team league phase — an expanded format that began last season — featuring a record six English representatives. Holders PSG are among 36 teams set to contest 189 matches, with the final scheduled for next May at Budapest’s Puskás Arena. The BBC will provide match-by-match highlights on iPlayer and the BBC Sport website from 22:00 BST on Champions League Wednesdays and a Match of the Day special on BBC One at 22:40, with an additional highlights show on BBC Two on Thursday at 23:00.

Several of the BBC’s senior football journalists and former players cited Liverpool’s summer spending and strengthened squad as the main reason for their forecasts. Phil McNulty, Sami Mokbel and former Germany midfielder Thomas Hitzlsperger all picked Liverpool, pointing to high-profile additions such as Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak and the club’s capacity to exploit a strong home advantage at Anfield. A number of other contributors, including John Murray and analytic models, also placed Liverpool at the top of their lists.

Analytical forecasts backed that view. Opta’s ‘Supercomputer’, which simulated the tournament 10,000 times using betting market odds and its own Power Rankings, made Liverpool favourites with a 20.4% chance of triumph, followed by Arsenal at 16%, PSG at 12.1% and Manchester City and Barcelona each at 8.4%. Microsoft Copilot Chat — the AI asked to predict a winner — also returned Liverpool.

Despite the Liverpool consensus, several experts stressed PSG, Real Madrid and Barcelona as serious threats. PSG, who lifted the trophy last season under the new format, were named by Spanish football expert Guillem Balagué, former England captain Steph Houghton and ex-Scotland winger Pat Nevin, who highlighted the Parisian side’s youth, athleticism and attacking style. Real Madrid drew endorsements from Match of the Day commentator Steve Wilson, Observer correspondent Rory Smith and BBC analyst Nedum Onuoha, who underlined the club’s mentality and the impact of manager Xabi Alonso. Barcelona attracted backing from former Arsenal defender Matt Upson and BBC analyst Stephen Warnock, who cited their blend of young talent and proven performers.

When asked which English club would progress furthest, most pundits again highlighted Liverpool, though Arsenal and Manchester City received strong support. Phil McNulty and Sami Mokbel said Arsenal and City have the depth to mount deep runs alongside Liverpool. Rory Smith suggested Manchester City could go far if Arsenal become distracted by a Premier League title race. Several contributors expected all six English teams to reach the knockout rounds, with two or three potentially making the semi-finals.

Panelists were split on the competition’s surprise packages. Napoli emerged repeatedly as a dark horse after Antonio Conte guided them to the Serie A title and the club added Kevin De Bruyne. Conte’s organisational approach and Napoli’s recent domestic form prompted picks from John Murray, Phil McNulty, Theo Walcott and others. Other names put forward as potential overachievers included Athletic Bilbao, Bodo/Glimt, Galatasaray, Juventus, Villarreal and Qarabağ, with observers noting a mix of managerial pedigree, tactical organisation and underappreciated squad depth.

Experts also highlighted a short list of players to watch. Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal was the most frequently mentioned, with several pundits describing the 18-year-old as a potential tournament star. Other players flagged included PSG’s Desire Doue, Chelsea’s Joao Pedro, Nico Williams of Athletic Bilbao, Napoli’s Scott McTominay, Arsenal’s Eberechi Eze and rising talents such as Estevao Willian and Nick Woltemade.

The tournament’s expanded format, introduced last season, increases the number of fixtures and reshapes the early-stage calendar, which some contributors said could make squad depth and rotation even more decisive. Several pundits noted last season’s unpredictability — PSG earned only four points from their first five group games before becoming dominant later in the campaign — as evidence that form and fitness at key moments will be crucial.

The BBC panel’s aggregated picks saw Liverpool selected by seven contributors, PSG by three, Real Madrid by three, Barcelona by two and Arsenal by one. That mix of opinion underscores the depth of competition across Europe’s elite clubs and the influence of summer transfer activity and managerial changes on expectations ahead of the new Champions League season.

The group phase kicks off this week and will run through the winter before knockout rounds begin next spring, culminating in the final at Budapest’s Puskás Arena in May. Broadcasters and analytics will follow the tournament closely; pundits say the battle for fitness, form and tactical cohesion will be decisive in determining which club lifts the famous trophy.