BBC Sport experts back Liverpool as favourites for 2025-26 Champions League
Panel of pundits, journalists and data models name Liverpool top pick while views vary on surprise packages and players to watch
A majority of BBC Sport's experts have tipped Liverpool to win the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League after a summer of high-profile signings, with data models and an AI suggestion aligning behind the Merseyside club.
Thirty-six teams begin the expanded league phase this week in a season that will feature 189 matches and conclude with the final at Budapest's Puskas Arena in May. Holders Paris St-Germain are among the entrants and England has a record six clubs in the competition. The BBC will again provide highlights, with match-by-match coverage on iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and a Match of the Day special on BBC One on Champions League Wednesdays.
Seven of the BBC contributors picked Liverpool as their likely winners, citing the club's significant summer investment and squad depth. Chief football writer Phil McNulty praised Liverpool's recruitment, naming Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak among the acquisitions he believes are "Champions League-ready." Senior football correspondent Sami Mokbel and a number of former professionals and commentators echoed that assessment, pointing to Liverpool's near-miss last season and the boost provided by new signings.
Paris St-Germain, Real Madrid and Barcelona also attracted several votes. Guillem Balague, Steph Houghton and Pat Nevin named PSG among the favourites, noting the club's young, athletic squad and recent success under the new expanded format. Former players and journalists who picked Real Madrid cited the club's experience and individual quality, while Barcelona supporters on the panel highlighted Lamine Yamal as a potential tournament star.
Automated forecasts echoed human opinion. Microsoft Copilot Chat produced an AI prediction in favour of Liverpool, and Opta's 'Supercomputer' — a model that combines betting-market odds and the company's Power Rankings and simulates the competition 10,000 times — made Liverpool favourites with a 20.4% chance of winning, followed by Arsenal at 16%, PSG at 12.1% and both Manchester City and Barcelona at 8.4%.
Panelists were divided over which of the six English clubs would progress furthest. Several experts named Liverpool as the most likely to go deep, while others highlighted Arsenal and Manchester City as strong contenders. Rory Smith suggested City could be favoured because Arsenal might become distracted by a domestic title race, and commentators noted that the depth of Premier League squads — bolstered by heavy summer spending — makes deep runs by English clubs plausible.
Predictions for surprise packages were more varied. Napoli emerged repeatedly as a dark-horse choice after Antonio Conte led the club to the Serie A title and added Kevin De Bruyne in the close season, with several analysts saying Conte's organisation and squad depth could carry Napoli into the latter stages. Other names put forward included Athletic Bilbao and Bodo/Glimt for their recent domestic performances and distinctive styles, Galatasaray for heavy summer recruitment, and Villarreal for managerial stability under Marcelino Garcia Toral. Some pundits also expressed hope that Juventus could rekindle past European form.
The panel identified several young and established players to watch. Barcelona's Lamine Yamal was the most frequently mentioned, described by commentators as one of the tournament's most exciting attacking prospects despite a recent back complaint that may affect his availability early on. PSG's Desire Doue and Brazil-born Estevao Willian drew praise as rising talents, while more experienced figures such as Kylian Mbappe and Kevin De Bruyne were noted for their ability to influence big matches. A number of analysts also flagged defensive talents, including Real Madrid's Dean Huijsen, as key to any title tilt by their clubs.
The panel's collective views reflect early-season form, transfer-market activity and managerial changes, but contributors emphasised that knockout-stage fitness and form often determine Champions League success. Last season's expanded format, which saw PSG win the trophy in its first 36-team league phase, underlined the variability of the competition; several pundits noted PSG's slow start in last season's group stage before they became a dominant side in the spring.
BBC Sport invited readers to vote on the eventual winner from the 36 teams and will continue to cover developments across the group and knockout phases. The competition begins this week and will run alongside domestic campaigns, with pundits and data models expected to update their assessments as the season progresses.