Bills' depleted secondary hands edge to Lamar Jackson, New York Post projects Over 228.5 passing yards in Week 1
Tre’Davious White, Christian Benford and other injuries leave Buffalo thin, prompting a Sunday Night Football player-prop pick favoring Baltimore's quarterback.
The Buffalo Bills enter Sunday Night Football Week 1 with significant questions in the secondary, a development that has led the New York Post to back Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson to top 228.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365).
Buffalo is coping with groin injuries to starting cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Christian Benford, and second-year safety Cole Bishop missed portions of training camp with a quad issue. Rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston is on injured reserve with a knee ailment. Despite being the road team, the Ravens opened as a small favorite against the Bills.
The pick was published by New York Post betting analyst Dylan Svoboda, who cited Jackson’s improved passing profile and Buffalo’s diminished defensive backfield as the principal factors. Jackson enjoyed a career-best passing season in 2024, throwing for 4,172 yards with 41 touchdowns and posting a 119.6 passer rating. Those numbers underscored a transition for Jackson into a more prolific downfield threat while retaining his rushing ability.
The two teams met twice last season, with Baltimore producing more than 400 yards in both matchups and scoring 35 points in the regular-season meeting and 25 points in the AFC divisional-round game in January. In that playoff contest — played in frigid, snowy conditions in Buffalo — Jackson threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns despite a largely healthy Bills secondary.
Sunday night’s weather forecast is expected to be far more favorable to passing attacks, with low-60s temperatures and partly cloudy skies in Buffalo. That improvement in conditions, along with the Bills’ injury report, shaped the decision to target Jackson’s individual passing total rather than a specific receiver’s prop. Svoboda noted Jackson’s tendency to distribute the ball broadly as a reason to avoid receiver-specific bets.
Betting markets reflect the matchup calculus: Jackson’s line of 228.5 passing yards is modest relative to his 2024 averages, and the -110 price indicates balanced action on both sides of the total at some books. The New York Post’s published pick anticipates Jackson exceeding that threshold, pointing to matchups in the Buffalo secondary and Baltimore’s demonstrated ability to generate high-yardage outings in recent meetings.
Buffalo remains a perennial postseason contender and has defensive talent when healthy, but the current status of multiple defensive backs creates uncertainty about how the Bills will handle Jackson’s spread-the-field passing attack on opening night. The Bills could adjust personnel or scheme to mitigate those weaknesses, and in-game developments, including any roster changes or late reports, will influence actual outcomes and in-play markets.
The New York Post recommendation is one among many player-prop angles for the Sunday Night Football marquee game. Bettors and observers will watch whether Buffalo’s defensive health improves before kickoff and whether Jackson’s early reads and game script push him toward the projected mark. The pick as published lists Lamar Jackson Over 228.5 passing yards at -110 via bet365, with analysis credited to Dylan Svoboda.
