Bills Jump to Super Bowl Favorite After Week 1 as Oddsmakers Shift Lines
Buffalo and Josh Allen surge in futures markets; favorites went 13-3 in opening weekend and Chiefs are rare home underdogs
Oddsmakers moved quickly after the NFL's opening weekend, installing the Buffalo Bills as the new Super Bowl favorite and elevating Josh Allen to the front of the MVP market as futures lines reacted to Week 1 results.
Buffalo, fresh off a comeback win at Baltimore, is listed at +600 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM Sportsbook and sits atop the AFC futures at +325. The Bills are also a heavy -700 favorite to win the AFC East, the most lopsided divisional odds in football. Allen's comeback performance against the Ravens pushed him to +600 for NFL MVP; Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, who began the year as a preseason favorite for the award, has seen his position slip after the loss.
Green Bay's Week 1 victory over Detroit reshaped the NFC North picture and further influenced divisional futures. The Packers beat the Lions 27-13, and the win — plus the offseason addition of edge rusher Micah Parsons — moved Green Bay into a -125 favorite to win the division. The game also underscored a season-opening swing in expectations in a division that had been viewed as wide open in the preseason.
New York's two teams left Week 1 with diminished playoff prospects. The Jets and Giants remain among the league's long shots to reach the postseason, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Jets are listed at +630 to make the playoffs and the Giants at +880; only the New Orleans Saints (+1040) and Cleveland Browns (+1120) have longer postseason odds. Both New York teams lost in Week 1 and saw their early-season lines reflect the outcomes.
Across the league, favorites dominated the opening slate. Teams favored in Week 1 went 13-3, a outcome that will benefit fans in survivor pools who stick with favorites while making life tougher for bettors seeking underdogs. Upsets were rare but notable: the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Brazil on Friday night, the Las Vegas Raiders pulled off an upset at New England as roughly 2.5-point underdogs, and the Bills' road victory over Baltimore was another early underdog result.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be a headline storyline again after it was revealed they will open their home schedule as underdogs in Sunday's rematch with the Philadelphia Eagles. If the line stands, it would mark the first time the Chiefs have been underdogs at Arrowhead in nearly three years; the last occasion was when Kansas City faced Buffalo in Week 6 of the 2022 season. For quarterback Patrick Mahomes, it would be just the second time in his career that he was not favored at home.
Oddsmakers across books responded quickly to the weekend's results beyond team futures. Individual markets adjusted with Allen supplanting Jackson atop many MVP boards, and divisional and conference odds shifted as bettors and lines reacted to early-season performances. The early movement illustrates how a single weekend can alter expectations in a tightly matched league, particularly when games produce dramatic finishes or unexpected outcomes.
Week 1's results come with the caveat that futures and team lines are fluid early in the season. Oddsmakers often recalibrate markets based on injuries, emerging trends and subsequent matchups, meaning the current contours of the betting landscape could continue to change as teams prepare for Week 2. Bettors who track early movement are watching both the upward shifts for Buffalo and Green Bay and the long-shot designations for teams that fell short in their openers.