Broncos-Jaguars Week 16 showdown tests AFC playoff positioning
Denver seeks to extend its 11-game winning streak and solidify postseason footing as Jacksonville tries to stay hot in a tight AFC race.
Denver and Jacksonville meet in Week 16 as one of the AFC's marquee matchups, with playoff positioning still unsettled. The Broncos (12-2) extended an 11-game winning streak by beating Green Bay 34-26, while the Jaguars (10-4) rolled past the Jets 48-20 for their fifth straight win.
Denver's resurgence has been anchored by Sean Payton's system, a stout defense that racks up sacks and an offense capable of explosive plays. Bo Nix has shown steady pocket timing, accounting for four touchdowns in the last game, and he has been sacked 16 times across 14 appearances. Trevor Lawrence, meanwhile, starred in Week 15 with five touchdown passes against the Jets. Across a five-game win streak, Lawrence has averaged 242.2 passing yards per game and 34.2 points per contest. Jacksonville's defense has been aggressive against the run and is among the league leaders in takeaways, with 18 interceptions this season, the second-most in the NFL.
The Jaguars have leaned on a run defense that rarely yields big gains, and their ability to create turnovers complements a passing game that has shown momentum. Lawrence will face a Broncos defense that generates pressure at a high rate—Denver pressures quarterbacks on about 29.5% of drop-backs, the second-highest figure in the NFL. The Broncos lead the league with 58 sacks this season, a factor that could test Lawrence's timing and decision-making.
Jacksonville will try to balance the attack with Travis Etienne, whose backfield presence helps set the pace. If Denver can bottle up Etienne and force Lawrence to win through the air, the game could tilt toward the Broncos. The Broncos' own offense has benefited from protection that allows Nix to execute the game plan, and he has turned in productive performances when given time.
The betting market reflected the matchup's balance, with Denver listed as a 3.5-point favorite at FanDuel (listed at -102). The line signals a tight, home-field-influenced contest in a tense late-season stretch for both teams. The outcome could influence AFC playoff seeding and tiebreakers as the league's final weeks unfold, with Payton's build and Jacksonville's winning streak both shaping the landscape.
Empower Field at Mile High figures to be a key stage for decisions in the AFC. Denver hopes to extend its recent momentum while Jacksonville seeks to keep pace with the conference's other contenders. The result will add another chapter to a season defined by a blend of defensive prowess, big-play offense and a rapidly evolving playoff picture in the AFC.
