Cal Raleigh's 60th Homer Sparks MVP Tug-of-War With Aaron Judge

Cal Raleigh on Thursday night joined a small group of hitters who have reached 60 home runs in a season, a milestone that has suddenly put the Seattle catcher at the center of the American League MVP debate with New York’s Aaron Judge. Raleigh’s 60th homer arrives at a moment when the MVP conversation is shaped just as much by one-year peak numbers as by the broader context of a player’s value to his team. As of Thursday, Raleigh was listed as a slight betting favorite over Judge at BetMGM, reflecting the combination of historic achievement and the catcher’s potential intangible contributions that scouts and voters weigh when evaluating worth.

Judge, meanwhile, has a sizable edge in several traditional counting and rate stats. He had 51 homers entering the final stretch of the season and is closing in on the AL batting title, while also carrying strong marks in on-base percentage and slugging. Judge has been a steady contributor across major categories, and his team is positioned for a playoff run. In terms of advanced metrics, Judge leads Raleigh by a wide margin in Baseball Reference’s version of wins above replacement (bWAR) — 9.3 to 7.2 — and trails only narrowly in FanGraphs’ fWAR, where Judge sits at 9.6 to Raleigh’s 9.1. Judge also owns a pronounced advantage in batting average (.330 to Raleigh’s .247), on-base percentage (.457 to .360) and slugging percentage (.683 to .594).

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The numbers suggest a clear edge for Judge in the big, traditional stats, even though Raleigh’s 60-homer season has added a compelling narrative to the voters’ deliberations. Raleigh’s 60th homer comes on a year when no catcher has ever hit as many homers in a season, creating a striking historical note that could tilt conversations about positional value. Raleigh’s role as the Mariners’ catcher also invites consideration of factors that are difficult to quantify, such as game-calling, leadership, and framing — areas where the data can be nuanced and where a catcher’s influence might be underrepresented in a simple WAR tally.

To understand the MVP landscape, it helps to recall how past races have treated similar surges in power. The 60-home-run threshold has historically been a rarity that coincides with high accolades, but not a guaranteed MVP. In 1998, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa both surpassed 60 homers during a season of a broader power surge, yet McGwire won the home-run chase while Sosa captured the NL MVP that year. The following year, McGwire hit 70 homers but lost the MVP to Sosa, underscoring that individual home-run totals are only part of the equation. The modern era has only reinforced that quantitative achievements must be weighed against the broader impact on a team’s success and the context of the vote.

The Mariners are a key part of this equation. Seattle captured its division title for the first time since 2001, a milestone that adds a layer of team-context to Raleigh’s candidacy. The question for voters is whether Raleigh’s contributions, including the discipline and defense behind the plate, carry enough weight to offset the broader combo of Judge’s stat lines and the Yankees’ playoff trajectory. Advanced metrics offer a voice in that assessment: cWPA, which measures how a player’s performances raise his team’s chances of winning the World Series, currently favors Judge at 3.8% to Raleigh’s 3.0%. While that gap is meaningful, it is not definitive, and MVP ballots have historically rewarded players who can bring both peak performance and sustained value across a season.

Historical patterns also offer context. Since 2016, across both leagues, only five of 16 MVP winners failed to lead their league in bWAR, suggesting that top overall value remains a common path to the award. But there are notable exceptions. Christian Yelich in 2018 finished fourth in bWAR in the NL, with pitchers eclipsing him in the stat, yet he still won the MVP. In 2019, Mike Trout won the AL MVP despite trailing Alex Bregman in bWAR, illustrating that voters sometimes prioritize other elements beyond a single WAR figure. In 2021, Bryce Harper won the award even as Zack Wheeler led the NL in bWAR, and in 2022 Paul Goldschmidt beat out Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado while Sandy Alcantara led the NL in bWAR as a pitcher. In 2023, Ronald Acuña Jr. won the NL MVP in a year where his 40-homer, 70-steal combination was a standout, underscoring the role of unusual, game-changing achievements in motivating voters.

Raleigh’s case rests on more than a single milestone. The catcher’s 60-homer season is historically rare and has a certain narrative weight that could influence a vote that rewards rarity and impact. Yet even with a historic year and a division title, Raleigh is not a lock in the way some players are when their teams reach the playoffs or when the numbers align in a traditional, widely recognized way. The distinction between a “traditionally-valued” MVP and a season that redefines a position can be subtle but meaningful — especially when the voters weigh a catcher’s defensive and game-management contributions, which are not fully captured by standard WAR metrics.

For Judge, the path is straightforward in many ways: continue to pile up high-end numbers, help the Yankees secure a playoff berth, and become the archetype of a complete, window-dressing season that aligns with the most common MVP narrative. For Raleigh, the challenge is to convert 60 homers into a broader sense of indispensability that resonates with voters who may weigh leadership, durability, and the strategic value of a catcher as a difference-maker behind the plate. The interplay of these elements will play out as the season winds down and voters begin to reflect on who most effectively carried his team across the finish line.

In the end, the MVP decision is a blend of objective production and subjective valuation. Raleigh’s 60-homer season is a historic marker that makes the case for him as a once-in-a-generation contributor in a catcher’s role. Judge’s dominant all-around profile, reinforced by the Yankees’ continued playoff hopeful status, keeps him firmly in contention. The final verdict will likely hinge on which factors the voters deem most essential in weighing a season’s overall impact, with Raleigh’s historic power serving as a powerful footnote to a broader, numbers-driven case for Judge. The question remains whether a catcher’s unique contributions can tilt the scales in a season that is otherwise defined by a superstar’s multi-category dominance.