Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes dominate 2025-26 Norris Trophy market as long shots slip into value spots

Oddsmakers have priced the 2025-26 Norris Trophy as a two-player contest, with Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar installed as the favorite and Vancouver Canucks blue-liner Quinn Hughes a close second, leaving a raft of potential contenders at long odds.

Makar entered the market at about +150 to win his third Norris Trophy in four seasons, while Hughes checked in near +200, according to the betting board reviewed by the New York Post. The next-most-favored defenseman listed was Zach Werenski at roughly 10/1, with other notable names — Rasmus Dahlin, Evan Bouchard and Lane Hutson — stretching from about 20/1 to 35/1. That concentration of money at the top has pushed several capable players to prices that some bettors consider good value.

The market’s two-horse look has drawn criticism from some bettors who call Norris futures a poor wager when public opinion coalesces around a pair of stars. Michael Leboff, a betting analyst writing for the New York Post, argued the concentration creates chances for value hunters to back longer shots whose underlying numbers suggest they could break through if circumstances align.

Among those long shots is Ottawa Senators defenseman Jake Sanderson, listed as high as 100/1 at some books such as bet365. Sanderson finished the previous season with 57 points, placing him among the top-scoring rearguards, and he averaged more than 24 minutes of ice time per game. His role as a No. 1 defenseman on a rising Senators club and steady upward trends in his minutes and production are the basis for his odds-defying case.

Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings is another name that drifted down the board, showing up at roughly 500/1 on FanDuel. Seider burst onto the NHL scene as a Calder Trophy winner in 2021-22 with a 50-point season, but his raw numbers have been less eye-popping in subsequent years amid Detroit’s organizational struggles. Analysts note that a return to 60-plus points and sustained top pairing minutes, coupled with a playoff push, would likely put Seider on many Norris ballots.

Seth Jones, who was part of Florida’s roster that advanced deep into the playoffs, also appeared at long odds in some markets, with FanDuel listing him near 500/1. Jones’s postseason usage — he averaged about 25 minutes, 30 seconds of ice time during the Panthers’ playoff run and delivered pivotal goals — underlines the view that a full season of heavy deployment could lift him into Norris contention. Jones has twice recorded 50-point seasons in his career, evidence cited by those who see upside despite his price.

Oddsmakers’ reads also left room for mid-tier names. Rasmus Dahlin was shown around 20/1, Evan Bouchard near 30/1 and Lane Hutson about 35/1 — figures that reflect respect for established production but a market belief that the crown will come down to the top two vote-getters. The betting landscape mirrors a common narrative among fans and pundits that the Norris, voted on by members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association, can tilt toward high-end puck-moving defensemen who drive team results and power-play time.

Historically, the Norris has been decided by a mix of point production, defensive responsibility and narrative — factors that can make futures markets volatile. With early-season lines favoring Makar and Hughes heavily, sportsbooks have priced the race accordingly, and that approach has pushed other contenders into long-shot territory. Whether that creates sustainable betting value will depend on in-season developments: health, usage, team success and the subjective judgments of voters.

Bettors and observers tracking the run-up to the regular season will watch deployment, special-teams roles and underlying metrics for signs that any of the long shots can close the gap. For now, the market has cast the 2025-26 Norris Trophy as essentially a head-to-head between Makar and Hughes, with several capable defensemen available at prices that reflect the field-versus-favorites framing.