College Football Week 4 Predictions Highlight Playoff Stakes and Top-25 Showdowns

Week 4 of the college football season arrives with playoff stakes that feel as sharp as ever, even as the expanded postseason keeps the field unusually narrow. Across the sport, only a fraction of teams will be invited to the playoff, and the conversation remains dominated by the traditional power programs. The Week 4 slate underscores how even a few surprise runs could reshape the narrative, with a marquee matchup pitting No. 19 Indiana against No. 9 Illinois in Bloomington—the first time the two programs have ranked simultaneously since 1950.

Indiana is atop the conversation at 3-0, and Illinois sits at 3-0 as well, after impressive early schedules. The Hoosiers have rattled off wins by a combined 156-23 in their first three games, while the Illini have outscored opponents 135-22 en route to a double-digit win season that has put Bret Bielema’s club in a spotlight it has seldom enjoyed in recent years. The Bloomington showdown will test whether Indiana can sustain its early momentum on a stage that historically favors the sport’s strongest programs, and Illinois will try to push its playoff ambitions with a performance away from home.

Image: College football action photo

Beyond the Hoosiers and Illini, Week 4 features a mix of traditional standout programs and potential upsets that could shift conversations about the playoff picture. Iowa, favored by 2.5 points at home against Rutgers, will look to extend a pattern of strong defense and reliable results. Iowa enters the game led by a defense that has been one of the league’s most dependable units, while Rutgers has shown early-season offensive fireworks that will be tested by a Hawkeyes defense that has historically stymied this matchup. Rutgers is 3-11 as a home underdog in Greg Schiano’s second act, complicating expectations for a potential upset.

TCU travels to SMU as a 6.5-point favorite, aiming to avenge last year’s 66-42 shootout that featured three non-offensive touchdowns by SMU. Josh Hoover’s production could again test SMU’s defense, which has yielded more passing yards per game than all but a couple of teams in the country. The Horned Frogs are expected to lean on their veteran attack to restore credibility after a rough showing in the prior meeting.

Image: College football action photo

Clemson sits at 1-2 and hosts Syracuse as a 17.5-point favorite, a line that reflects the Tigers’ struggle to find consistency under Dabo Swinney. Syracuse’s offense has shown life in spots, and the Orange will try to exploit any lapses as Clemson looks to flash the championship pedigree that has defined Swinney’s tenure. In a contrasting matchup, Utah hosts Texas Tech as a 2.5-point favorite, a game that could test the Red Raiders’ early-season confidence and the Utes’ stingy defense, which is allowing fewer than nine points per game.

Notre Dame, riding a must-run-the-table mindset to contend for playoff consideration, is a 24.5-point favorite over Purdue. The Irish are chasing a path to a national conversation that mandates flawless execution against a Purdue squad that has shown durability but will need a surge to stay within striking distance in this rivalry feel game.

Oklahoma, a 6.5-point favorite over Auburn, brings a defense that has been among the nation’s best and a quarterback room that is evolving. The Sooners have a history of success as home favorites in recent seasons and are positioned to leverage their depth in a challenging non-conference setting.

Tulane is listed as an 11.5-point underdog against Ole Miss, a game that could test Tulane’s offense against a Rebels squad that has shown flashes this season. Jake Retzlaff’s ground-oriented approach, following the blueprint used by Arkansas’ Taylen Green last year, could give Ole Miss’ defense fits if Tulane can sustain driving yards and time of possession.

Michigan hosts Nebraska in a late-night intrastate crossfire, with quarterback Bryce Underwood—an anticipated breakout talent for the Wolverines—looking to build on the early-season ups and balance in a program that remains a playoff favorite. Nebraska, while capable of flashes, has not defeated a ranked opponent in several years and will need a breakthrough performance to flip momentum on the road.

South Carolina travels to Missouri in a game that could hinge on the status of LaNorris Sellers after a concussion scare. If Sellers is available, the Gamecocks hope to showcase a more complete offensive attack against a Missouri defense that has been stingy through the early part of the season.

Miami, favored by 7.5 points against Florida, is hoped by its fans to be the team that could re-establish the Hurricanes as a dominant force in the region. A decisive performance against a rising Gators squad would signal the potential for Miami to emerge as the season’s most dangerous upstart, should the balance of power tilt in its favor.

Baylor opens as a 2.5-point favorite over Arizona State, with Sam Leavitt and Baylor’s passing game aiming to push through a Sun Devils defense that has shown resilience but has not yet matched the consistency of the conference’s top teams. Sam Houston opens as a 39.5-point underdog against Texas, a reminder that the Longhorns’ depth and talent present a significant challenge for non-conference upstarts. Arch Manning has attempted to factor into the mix for Texas, though his showing remains a point of interest for observers tracking his development.

USC, a major late-night favorite at 18.5 points over Michigan State, brings a high-powered offense that has shown elite efficiency and production in recent weeks. The Spartans will face a difficult task in slowing down the Trojans’ multi-faceted attack.

Across the board, bettors and analysts highlight Iowa, Oklahoma and Tulane as favorable bets for the week, reflecting a trend toward teams with strong defenses, efficient offenses and proven track records as home favorites. The betting landscape for Week 4 also comes with a reminder of the evolving playoff conversation, where even strong teams face a demanding path to qualification.

Image: College football action photo

Best Bets: Iowa, Oklahoma, Tulane. Season: 18-27 (3-6). 2014-24 record: 1,392-1,309-31. Howie Kussoy remains a prominent voice in the New York Post’s betting coverage, with the context that these games are part of a broader, long-running attempt to quantify value in college football betting against the spread. The Week 4 slate represents a mix of potential upsets and expected wins as teams navigate a landscape where playoff access remains sharply limited despite the era of expanded opportunity. Readers are encouraged to review lines closely as kickoff times approach and to consider how injuries, roster changes and travel could influence outcomes in a week that could recalibrate conversations about the playoff field for the rest of the season.