Colorado vs. Houston: Expert pick backs Colorado moneyline (+158) ahead of Friday night clash
New York Post analyst cites Houston's soft early schedule and Conner Weigman's limited tests while trusting Deion Sanders' Buffaloes in the American Athletic Conference matchup
A New York Post betting pick favors Colorado on the moneyline (Colorado +158 on FanDuel) in Friday night's American Athletic Conference game against Houston, with the analyst arguing the market is overvaluing the Cougars based on soft early opponents and the arrival of transfer quarterback Conner Weigman.
Colorado enters the game 1-1 after a 27-20 home loss to Georgia Tech in Week 1 and a rebound victory over Delaware. Houston is 2-0 after lopsided wins over Stephen F. Austin and Rice, outscoring those opponents by a combined 62-9. The Cougars have allowed nine points through two games and will host the Buffaloes at John O'Quinn Field.
The pick, offered by New York Post betting analyst Michael Leboff, rests on two main premises: preseason evaluations generally ranked Colorado ahead of Houston, and Houston’s early results have come against teams that were expected to be weaker. Leboff noted that while Houston’s 2-0 start and strong defensive numbers are real, they have come against lesser competition and may have inflated market expectations.
Houston coach Willie Fritz, in his second year with the program, has drawn praise for improving the Cougars and for garnering offseason optimism. The arrival of Weigman, a transfer from Texas A&M, added to that momentum. However, Leboff and other evaluators pointed out that Weigman’s high-level production has been against Stephen F. Austin and Rice so far, and that his tenure at Texas A&M included bouts of inconsistency.
Those factors helped form the case for backing Colorado on the moneyline rather than taking a point spread or backing Houston as a consensus favorite. Leboff, identified in the New York Post as a 10-year veteran sports bettor who applies game theory to wagering markets, wrote that bettors should be cautious about projecting a breakout performance from Weigman against a Power Five defense and that Colorado, even if not the same high-powered unit of 2024, should not be receiving such long odds.
Colorado coach Deion Sanders has navigated early-season scrutiny after the Buffaloes' Week 1 loss, and Friday's game represents Utah’s first conference test under the new American Athletic Conference alignment. Houston’s defensive early output will be examined under a stiffer challenge; the Cougars' staff and players have repeatedly pointed to the need to prove the early numbers against better competition.
The matchup carries implications beyond a single result. A win by Houston would consolidate early momentum and bolster Fritz’s narrative of rapid program improvement. A Colorado victory would quiet questions about the Buffaloes' trajectory under Sanders and provide a signature nonconference win to present to voters and bettors alike.
For bettors, the recommendation to take Colorado +158 is a play on perceived market mispricing, combining preseason power rankings, strength of opponents, and the variable projection of a transfer quarterback against a Power Five defense. FanDuel listed the moneyline at the time of the New York Post piece; bettors should consult current lines and local regulations before wagering.
Kickoff is set for Friday night, when Colorado and Houston will provide an early-season measure of where each team stands as conference play begins to take shape.