Data shows Manchester United performance outstrips recent results under Ruben Amorim

Manchester United have produced performances that, by several statistical measures, have been stronger than their results suggest since Ruben Amorim took charge, according to analysis by the BBC.

Despite taking only two Premier League wins since the start of April and collecting just eight points in their last 10 league matches — a run beaten by only Tottenham among the 20 clubs — United have created more than they have conceded in that period, with underlying numbers indicating the team deserved better outcomes.

To strip out influence from spot kicks, the BBC analysis excludes penalties and focuses on chances created and allowed through open play. Over the most recent 10-game window, United took the most shots in the Premier League. Only Manchester City have faced fewer shots among the 17 clubs present throughout the period, underscoring United’s territorial control. Yet the team has scored seven goals fewer than would be expected from the chances they produced and conceded four goals more than expected from chances allowed.

The mismatch stems from two related problems: finishing in attack and preventing high-quality chances at the back. Since Amorim's arrival, the side has registered the lowest-quality shots in the league up front and given up the highest-quality shots defensively. Expected-goal models account for shot quality, so the underperformance is not explained solely by the difficulty of the chances faced or created.

The 10-game sample includes matches against opponents reduced to 10 men for extended periods — a 65-minute advantage in games against Bournemouth and Aston Villa — a factor that can distort dominance metrics. The BBC analysis notes, however, that superiority when sides are a player down is not guaranteed: other fixtures during the same interval have shown that numerical advantage does not always translate to control or goals.

Over a longer span of 30 Premier League matches under Amorim, the trend has been one of gradual improvement. Since the beginning of March, United have increasingly generated more and better chances than their opponents, a steady rise not yet reflected in points and final scores. If the team had matched the efficiency of other clubs from similar volumes and qualities of chances, the analysis suggests United would have approximately double the points they currently possess from that recent sequence.

Why the discrepancy persists is unclear. The analysis lists plausible explanations without assigning a definitive cause: a possible shortfall in player quality, a confidence issue affecting finishing and goalkeeping, or elements of bad luck. The statistics also raise tactical questions, as Amorim's setup has coincided with poorer shot quality in attack and riskier shot profiles conceded in defence, though the causal link is not proven by the data.

The broader context underlines why the disparity between underlying numbers and actual results matters. Historical trends and statistical models show that teams consistently creating high-quality chances while allowing few tend to improve their fortunes over time. Expected-goal figures are not a guarantee of success in any single match but are predictive across larger samples.

Manchester United face Manchester City in the Premier League on Sunday, a fixture that will test whether the recent trend of creating but not converting chances can be reversed and whether defensive frailties can be tightened. While Amorim has not yet delivered the immediate turnaround some supporters expected after his December appointment, the data indicate signs of a nascent improvement that, if sustained and made more efficient in both boxes, could translate into better results in the coming weeks and months.