Erich Richter releases full NFL Week 1 spread picks, including Falcons, Ravens and Broncos

New York Post betting columnist Erich Richter published his full against-the-spread picks for the NFL Week 1 slate on Sunday and Monday, offering a selection for every game along with brief rationale for each choice. Richter, who tracks his seasonal results and prop performance at The Post, made predictions ranging from narrow divisional calls to double-digit spreads.

Richter opened his Week 1 card by siding with several underdogs and favorites across the league, highlighting quarterback situations, running-game matchups and recent roster changes as his chief considerations. He also reiterated his preseason view of the Baltimore Ravens as a Super Bowl contender and included a note on his published season record and historical returns.

On Sunday’s early slate, Richter took the Atlanta Falcons at +2.5 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, citing what he described as an upgrade at quarterback and the presence of running back Bijan Robinson as a key offensive weapon. He picked the New York Jets at +2.5 over the Pittsburgh Steelers, calling the matchup a likely low-scoring, competitive affair in MetLife Stadium.

Richter labeled Miami’s game against Indianapolis a “toilet bowl” and installed the Dolphins at +1.5 over the Colts, saying Miami holds a theoretical offensive edge when healthy. He forecast Jacksonville to cover as a 3.5-point favorite over Carolina, and he placed the New York Giants (+6) to upset the Washington Commanders outright, pointing to roster changes including a new veteran quarterback and a highly rated rookie pass rusher for the Giants.

He recommended the New Orleans Saints (+6.5) over the Arizona Cardinals, while predicting the Cleveland Browns (+5.5) to cover against Cincinnati and arguing Joe Flacco could exploit last year’s Bengals passing defense. Richter moved to the West Coast slate and favored the Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) over the New England Patriots amid concerns about injuries in New England’s secondary and multiple personnel changes in Las Vegas.

In matchups featuring division rivals, Richter tabbed the San Francisco 49ers -1.5 over the Seattle Seahawks, noting Seattle’s offensive line issues and expecting San Francisco’s pass rush to make a decisive impact. He installed the Denver Broncos -8.5 over the Tennessee Titans, pointing to Denver’s defensive depth and a highly rated offensive line as reasons for a large spread.

For the Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers game, Richter picked Detroit +2.5, citing historical Week 1 trends that have favored underdogs and divisional visitors in opening-week matchups. He selected the Houston Texans +3 over the Los Angeles Rams as a buy-low opportunity and forecast the Baltimore Ravens -1.5 over the Buffalo Bills, calling the Ravens his preseason Super Bowl pick and noting Buffalo’s injury issues during the preseason.

Richter closed his card with Monday night’s game, taking the Chicago Bears +1.5 over the Minnesota Vikings and expecting a run-focused game plan from Minnesota under its new quarterback direction.

He provided short, game-by-game reasoning tied to matchups, injuries and personnel moves rather than long-form scouting reports. Richter’s column also references specific situational statistics in a few games, including passing ratings and offensive-line rankings, as part of his rationale for several selections.

Richter included a summary of his recent betting performance, noting a last-season record of 119-138-3 and a stated return on investment in player props since 2022. The column concluded with his approach to Week 1 — weighing personnel changes, preseason injury reports and historical Week 1 trends — and a short note on the volatility of early-season lines.

The full list of Richter’s picks and extended commentary appears on the New York Post website, where readers can review his game-by-game notes and historical results.