Erich Richter unveils full NFL Week 2 picks, backs several underdogs and divisional shocks

New York Post betting analyst Erich Richter published his full NFL Week 2 predictions, releasing game-by-game picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s slate that lean on a mix of favorites and underdogs. Richter’s board includes several single-digit spreads with contrarian choices — notably New England over Miami and New York over Buffalo — and model-driven projections that tip a handful of divisional games toward the visitors.

Richter picked the New England Patriots (+1) to beat the Miami Dolphins, arguing the matchup will hinge on Miami’s ability to run. He noted New England’s secondary was vulnerable last week — allowing 9.8 yards per pass attempt — but said the Patriots’ run defense performed well and could limit the Dolphins if Miami cannot establish their ground game. Richter expects a close, low-margin result favoring New England.

In one of the more headline-grabbing choices, Richter backs the New York Jets (+6.5) to upset the Buffalo Bills. He acknowledged the Jets’ shaky defensive display in Week 1 but said that unit is unlikely to repeat last week’s performance in full and predicted New York will lean on the run to keep the game close and create a late chance to win. Richter framed the pick in part around turnover volatility, noting a single fumble or interception can swing results significantly.

Richter also forecasts the New York Giants (+6) to cover against the Dallas Cowboys, citing the Giants’ urgency and his model’s projected score that aligns with the spread. He picked the Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over the Cincinnati Bengals, arguing the Bengals’ Week 1 victory masked defensive problems and that Cincinnati’s defense remains exploitable.

Other notable selections include the Cleveland Browns (+11.5) over the Baltimore Ravens, where Richter pointed to Cleveland’s strong Week 1 run defense — which he said allowed two yards per rush attempt — and Joe Flacco’s return to Baltimore as factors favoring the Browns. He tabbed the Tennessee Titans (+5.5) to keep the Los Angeles Rams close after singling out Tennessee’s stingy yards-per-play allowance in Week 1.

Richter favored underdog quarterbacks and young passers in a few matchups. He installed the Chicago Bears (+6) over the Detroit Lions, citing the Bears’ rookie Caleb Williams’ early performance and comparing it unfavorably to Jared Goff’s play. He projected the Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) to outduel the Seattle Seahawks, pointing to Seattle’s offensive-line concerns and Pittsburgh’s adjustments after a slow start.

In interconference and marquee matchups, Richter kept some faith in established starters. He listed the San Francisco 49ers (-3) over the New Orleans Saints despite injuries, arguing the Saints’ backup quarterback matchup still favored San Francisco. The Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) were his choice over the Carolina Panthers, with Richter emphasizing Arizona’s win rate in games when the team sustains a strong rushing attack.

Richter’s model produced an exact projected score for one Monday tilt, favoring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) over the Houston Texans by a narrow 23.26–22.94 margin, which he identified as his best bet on the board. He also expected the Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) to handle the Las Vegas Raiders behind Justin Herbert’s early-season MVP buzz.

The analyst acknowledged an off week to start the season, with his Week 1 card finishing 5-8. Richter’s season record cited in the write-up includes last season’s mark of 119-138-3, and the Post’s piece highlighted his stated return on investment in player prop betting of 30.15 percent since 2022. The article described Richter’s background in combat-sports wagering as part of his betting profile.

Richter’s picks emphasize matchups and underlying team metrics such as yards per pass attempt, rush defense, and yards per play rather than headline injuries alone. He repeatedly referenced defensive performance metrics from Week 1 and how those figures shape game flow, particularly where run defenses have the potential to dictate outcomes.

The Week 2 slate includes several divisional rematches and primetime games that could reshape early-season perceptions. Richter’s selections will be one of many models and analysts weighed by bettors and outlets over the weekend as teams attempt to correct course after the opening weekend.

All picks and model projections were published by the New York Post’s betting section. Bettors and readers should note Richter’s admissions about variance and the uneven Week 1 return, and treat the published projections as one line of analysis among several ahead of Sunday’s and Monday’s games.