Experts Say NATO Must Respond After Russian Drone Incursions into Eastern Europe

Military experts and Western officials urged a stronger NATO response after a series of Russian unmanned aerial vehicle incursions into eastern European airspace last week, saying the breaches test the alliance’s resolve and risk normalizing hostile acts against NATO members.

Between Sept. 9 and Sept. 23, multiple drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO to scramble a multinational force of fighter jets that shot several down, according to allied and Polish accounts. Romania accused Russia of a separate airspace violation on Sept. 13, and Latvia reported a drone crashing in its east. Polish authorities also detained two Belarusians after a civilian drone was flown over the presidential palace, an action Warsaw called a "provocation."

Former British Army colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE told the Daily Mail that he had "no doubt" Russian President Vladimir Putin would continue probing NATO unless the alliance showed firmer resolve. "We played lip service to the peace dividend ... really giving the impression to Putin that we weren't that bothered and we didn't care," he said. "So in a way, it is slightly our own fault. We've got to show resolve now, otherwise he will keep going."

Allies moved swiftly to reinforce eastern defences. France, Germany and Denmark committed aircraft to a joint "Eastern Sentry" plan announced by NATO leaders, and the U.K. Ministry of Defence said it was "fully committed to playing our part." NATO scrambled jets from multiple member states during the incidents and countries bordering Ukraine have called for more tangible support for Kyiv and for themselves.

The incursions coincided with the Zapad joint drills held with Belarus from Sept. 12-16, a series of exercises that analysts say Moscow has used in the past to rehearse operations and signal intent. Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said the drills and the drone activity are "a way for Putin to communicate that it's not just Ukraine they are interested in, and Russia's plans may go beyond Ukraine."

Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, described the drone flights as part of a process of "testing and probing and pushing the boundaries of what Russia finds is acceptable," and warned that without a response Russia would be encouraged to carry out further incursions. "If the drone incursions in Poland do not trigger some kind of consequence that Russia finds distinctly uncomfortable, then that is confirmation from Moscow that they can do it again, and more, and bigger," he said.

Moscow dismissed some of the allegations and warned of consequences should NATO expand actions over Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council and former president, wrote on Telegram that attempts to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine or to allow NATO aircraft to down Russian UAVs would "mean only one thing — a war between NATO and Russia."

Polish and Ukrainian leaders have repeatedly called for NATO to take more direct action to prevent strikes reaching Ukrainian territory. De Bretton-Gordon and others renewed calls for allied aircraft to shoot down Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine, an idea that remains politically contentious because of the risk of direct confrontation between NATO and Russian forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Telegram that in just over two weeks Russian forces had launched more than 3,500 drones, more than 2,500 glide bombs and almost 200 missiles at targets in Ukraine.

Washington has ruled out deploying ground troops to enforce a ceasefire and is unlikely to send combat forces to join the European-led Eastern Sentry mission. U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general, said the United States was considering tougher economic measures. Kellogg said dealing with Moscow required diplomatic, military and economic pressure, and that allies might be forced to make hard calls on seizing or using Russian sovereign assets to increase the cost to Kremlin backers.

Analysts who have watched Russian military performance during three-and-a-half years of war say Moscow’s conventional air and ground capabilities have been degraded. De Bretton-Gordon said the Russian air force was "a spent force," and stressed that European NATO members possess capabilities, such as more than 150 F-35 stealth aircraft among them, that "vastly overmatch anything that Russia has." Others cautioned, however, that Moscow still can generate disruptive activity that weakens political cohesion in Europe.

"This is a process by which Russia gradually normalises a situation where hostile actions, and warlike acts are accepted by the Western Allies," Giles said. Philip Ingram MBE, a retired British Army colonel and military intelligence specialist, added that joint drills allow Russia to present "a much greater military capability than it actually has," and that the Kremlin also seeks to use such operations for domestic messaging.

European intelligence offices have warned in recent months that Russia could be tempted to test NATO’s Article 5 commitment within several years, although most analysts judged Moscow currently lacks the capacity to mount a large-scale invasion of NATO territory. De Bretton-Gordon said he did not believe Russia had the trained troops or logistics today to invade the Baltic states. "There's a lot of hot air coming out of the Kremlin but actually they just don't have the troops or if they do have the troops, they're untrained," he said.

The incidents have increased pressure on NATO political leaders to clarify and strengthen air defence arrangements along the alliance’s eastern flank. Allies say the Eastern Sentry mission is designed to reassure front-line states and deter further encroachments, but the political debate persists over how far NATO should act to defend Ukrainian airspace indirectly without triggering a wider conflict.

Officials and analysts agree the episodes mark a new phase of friction in Europe’s security environment. They say the alliance’s next steps, diplomatic and military, will shape whether the incursions remain isolated acts of provocation or become an accepted tactic with wider consequences for NATO cohesion and the security of Europe’s eastern borders.