Holmes to Start for Mets in Must-Win Saturday as Wild-Card Chase Narrows

The Mets’ postseason hopes hinge on a precise pitching plan, with Clay Holmes slated to start Saturday in a must-win game against the Marlins. Holmes and Sean Manaea are the two primary options for Game No. 161, and both appeared for an inning in relief Wednesday as manager Carlos Mendoza assessed who was best prepared for the stakes. New York slipped behind Cincinnati for the National League’s third and final wild-card berth based on the tiebreaker, while Arizona remained two games back on the day’s schedule.

"Clay was feeling a lot better," Mendoza said Thursday, explaining the decision to proceed with Holmes in the potential clincher. "Sean is feeling good today, but I just thought based on how they were feeling [Thursday] to go this route."

If New York stays alive Sunday, Mendoza’s short list would likely include Manaea and David Peterson, though he hadn’t ruled out using either or both beforehand in relief if needed. Holmes will start in the Mets’ near-mmust-win game Saturday against the Marlins as the team navigates a tight finish to the season.

Holmes has been the Mets’ most consistent starter aside from Nolan McLean, who has emerged as the rotation’s ace over eight major league starts. Holmes owns a 3.66 ERA over 159 2/3 innings this season, a career high after transitioning from reliever to starter. His last start came Sept. 16 against the Padres, a game in which he was piggybacked by Manaea after allowing two earned runs.

Manaea, the left-hander who has logged 14 appearances this season, scuffled in his last two outings after opening with a relief appearance against the Padres where he yielded one earned run over five innings. He carries a 5.80 ERA in those appearances and was candid about the challenge ahead for the pitching staff as the Mets tried to salvage a postseason bid. "It’s definitely going to be a challenge and I think that is kind of where we have been at for the last couple of months," Manaea said. "At this point it’s just whatever it takes. I think everybody kind of feels that."

Peterson has been a source of concern as well, having imploded in three of his last five starts, allowing at least six earned runs in each of those outings. He could be asked to start Sunday if circumstances dictate, though Mendoza has suggested he could deploy either or both bullpen options earlier if needed as the Mets chase a final postseason spot.

The tiebreaker dynamic remains pivotal. Cincinnati holds the edge in the tiebreaker for the NL’s final wild-card berth, underscoring how every final week decision could determine whether the Mets play on the road or at home. Arizona, two games back, loomed as a potential spoiler, adding pressure to how the final rotation pieces are deployed in the season’s closing days.

Holmes and Manaea acknowledged the pressure of finishing the season in a high-stakes environment. Holmes, who has spent most of his big-league career in roles where late-game moments defined his teams, said the key is focusing on today and not letting tomorrow’s potential outcomes distract from the task at hand. The Mets will finalize their pitching plan in the hours leading to first pitch, with the implications extending beyond a single game to the broader playoff picture for the franchise.