Makar, Hughes dominate 2025-26 Norris Trophy odds as long shots drift to long prices

Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes have separated themselves from the field in early 2025-26 Norris Trophy betting, with sportsbooks treating the award as a near two-player race and several legitimate contenders slipping to long odds.

Makar, the Colorado Avalanche defenseman, opened as the betting favorite at +150 to win what would be his third Norris in four seasons. Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes is the closest challenger at +200. Beyond those two, the next name on most boards is Zach Werenski at 10/1, followed by Rasmus Dahlin (20/1), Evan Bouchard (30/1) and Lane Hutson (35/1), according to the New York Post’s preseason market survey.

Oddsmakers and bettors say the concentration of value at the top can create opportunities for bettors willing to shop lines. New York Post betting writer Michael Leboff noted that with so much of the market share taken by Makar and Hughes, several bona fide Norris contenders have been pushed to what he called "outrageous prices" further down the board, presenting potential long-shot value.

One of those long shots is Ottawa’s Jake Sanderson, listed at 100/1 on bet365. Sanderson finished the previous season with 57 points, which ranked 10th among NHL defensemen, and averaged more than 24 minutes a night. Bettors and oddsmakers point to his steady upward trajectory over the past two seasons as the basis for a surprise push into Norris consideration if he takes another step forward.

Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings sits at a much longer price on some books — 500/1 on FanDuel — after a career that began with a 50-point Calder Trophy season in 2021-22 and has since seen production level off amid team struggles. Seider’s supporters say a rebound to 60-plus points and more than 25 minutes per night, coupled with a playoff return for the Red Wings, would place him on many Norris ballots.

Seth Jones, now with the Florida Panthers, is another long-odds name at 500/1 on some sportsbooks. Jones has posted multiple 50-point seasons in his career, and last season he played heavy minutes in the playoffs — averaging roughly 25:30 a night — and delivered key goals during Florida’s deep postseason run. Oddsmakers say a full season of that deployment and point production would make him a conversation candidate at value prices.

The market’s concentration on Makar and Hughes reflects recent voting trends and on-ice profiles. Makar’s blend of offensive output and heavy minutes has earned him multiple Norris trophies, and Hughes’ mobility and point production make him a natural rival. Still, the Norris has a history of being difficult to predict because voters weigh defensive impact, team context, and offensive statistics differently.

Sportsbooks have responded by pricing the award conservatively, with favorites soaking up handle and inflating odds on several players who, by conventional metrics, remain plausible winners. That dynamic is what Leboff highlighted when he advised bettors that opportunities can arise when the bulk of public money piles on a small number of stars.

While the market currently frames the race as Makar and Hughes versus the field, the list of potential challengers remains sizable and varied. Players such as Werenski, Dahlin, Bouchard and Hutson are in single- or low-double-digit odds and are frequently discussed by bettors and analysts. Others — Sanderson, Seider and Jones among them — sit in the triple- or quadruple-digit range and will likely see line movement only if their point production or team situations change markedly early in the season.

The NHL season and the Norris voting timeline leave room for movement. Injuries, changes in team deployment, and unexpected offensive surges historically have produced midseason favorites who were not on early betting boards. For now, sportsbooks and bettors appear comfortable treating the award as a two-horse race while monitoring the long list of potential challengers whose early-season performance could force a reevaluation.

Oddsmakers and analysts say bettors should watch usage and point pace in the opening weeks, as increases in minutes or power-play opportunity have been the most reliable early indicators of Norris momentum. With Makar and Hughes absorbing much of the market’s early value, bettors seeking upside might continue to pluck at longer-priced names, hoping for a swing in form or circumstance that would elevate a contender into the conversation.

The preseason odds represent only an opening snapshot. The Norris Trophy race traditionally unfolds over the full season, and while current lines underscore the perceived dominance of Makar and Hughes, the long list of potential challengers ensures the award will remain a subject of scrutiny for oddsmakers and voters alike as the 2025-26 season progresses.