Max Fried’s resurgence fuels Yankees’ pitching props ahead of Red Sox series
Right-hander has not allowed a homer in four starts and sportsbooks list him for under 2.5 earned runs and over 5.5 strikeouts
Max Fried’s recent stretch of dominance has prompted betting attention ahead of Saturday’s New York Yankees–Boston Red Sox game, with sportsbooks and analysts favoring props that lean on the right-hander’s return to form.
After a difficult mid-summer run, Fried has allowed just 1.67 earned runs per nine innings across his last four starts and has pitched at least six innings in each outing. During that span he has not surrendered a home run and has generated a 62.2% ground-ball rate, indicators that the 2025 season’s early success may be resuming.
From July 1 to mid-August, Fried posted a 6.80 ERA over eight starts, a stretch that raised questions about his status as the Yankees’ staff ace after an earlier first-half run that drew Cy Young comparisons. Since that difficult spell, however, he has lowered his run allowance substantially while maintaining enough swing-and-miss to produce 7.33 strikeouts per nine innings for the season. His walk rate sits around 3.00 per nine.
Fried faced Boston less than a month ago and blanked the Red Sox over six innings, striking out seven and allowing four hits. He also logged a strong outing in June against Boston, yielding two earned runs over seven innings while striking out nine. Three of his most recent starts have come against top American League lineups — the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros and the Red Sox — suggesting the recent improvement has held up against quality opposition.
Betting markets have reflected that confidence. The New York Post’s Saturday player-prop column highlights two Fried wagers at BetMGM Sportsbook: Fried to allow fewer than 2.5 earned runs (listed at -125) and Fried to record more than 5.5 strikeouts (listed at +105). The Post’s write-up treats Fried’s mid-summer slide as a temporary blip and points to his recent run and results against Boston as the basis for the plays.
Yankees manager and coaching staff comments on Fried’s adjusted usage and approach this month have emphasized limiting hard contact and attacking the strike zone, consistent with the pitcher’s improved ground-ball numbers and the absence of home runs allowed over his last four starts. Those changes have translated into longer outings and lower pitch counts, allowing the Yankees to get extended work from their rotation.
The matchup carries implications for both teams as the regular season advances. Boston’s offense has presented challenges for many pitchers this year, but its recent struggles against Fried illustrate how individual matchups can swing betting and lineup decisions. Fried’s ability to sustain his current form will be a key factor for New York’s rotation stability and for how sportsbooks adjust lines through the weekend.
Statistical trends, recent starts and matchup history will likely guide bettors and managers alike as Saturday’s game approaches. Fried’s combination of a heavy ground-ball profile and reduced long-ball risk underpins the prop-market interest, while his strikeout ceiling offers an alternate route for bettors seeking a higher payout via the 5.5-strikeout line.
The Yankees and Red Sox are scheduled to play Saturday in what figures to be a closely watched pitching duel, with Fried’s performance serving as an early test of whether his late-season correction will continue into the final weeks of the regular season.