Mets’ late-season slide puts playoff hopes in jeopardy

The New York Mets’ September collapse has left their postseason outlook precarious, with the club essentially eliminated from the National League East race and clinging to a two-game lead over the surging San Francisco Giants for the final wild-card spot with 17 games remaining. The Mets own the head-to-head tiebreaker against San Francisco but have produced little in recent months to inspire confidence.

New York’s downturn dates to June 12, when the Mets sat 21 games over .500, held the best winning percentage in baseball and enjoyed a 5.5-game lead in the division. Since that high point, the club has gone 31-45, the fourth-worst stretch in Major League Baseball in that span, ahead of only the Washington Nationals (30-46), Minnesota Twins (28-49) and Colorado Rockies (27-50).

The Mets have lost a staggering 14.5 division games during the slump, the largest collapse of any club, a swing that erased a 5.5-game advantage over the Philadelphia Phillies on June 12 and left New York nine games behind in the NL East. The pitching staff’s decline has been the primary factor in the downturn. Over the stretch since June 12, the Mets have the fifth-worst team earned-run average at 5.01; the starting rotation has a 5.08 ERA (seventh-worst) and the bullpen a 4.93 ERA (fifth-worst).

By contrast, through June 12 the Mets posted baseball’s best ERA (2.83), with starters at 2.79 and the bullpen at 2.51. Individual struggles have compounded the team’s problems; starting pitcher Sean Manaea’s difficulties were cited as a contributing factor to New York’s slide.

Other clubs have made gains in the same period, but none have mounted a charge as dramatic as the Mets’ fall. Milwaukee has the best record in that span, yet even the Brewers’ .684 winning percentage during the run translated into only a 12-game gain on another contender, underscoring how quickly standings can tighten late in the season.

Thanks to the Mets’ hot start, their cushion has not yet evaporated. Projection models still favored New York entering Wednesday, with FanGraphs giving the Mets an 87.8 percent chance of reaching the playoffs compared with 7.4 percent for the Giants, 5.4 percent for the Cincinnati Reds and 0.7 percent for the Arizona Diamondbacks. With 17 games remaining, the Mets must stabilize a pitching staff that has gone from one of the majors’ best to one of its most vulnerable if they are to preserve those odds.

The remaining schedule and the team’s ability to halt the recent slide will determine whether the Mets convert their early-season cushion into a postseason berth or watch rivals complete a late surge into October.