NC State a 7.5-point favorite at Wake Forest in 117th meeting; Wolfpack projected to cover

NC State opened as a 7.5-point favorite at Wake Forest on Thursday night, with sportsbooks setting the total at 53.5 points, as the two programs — separated by about 100 miles — renew one of college football's longest rivalries in their 117th consecutive season. Both teams enter the matchup 2-0 and seeking a 3-0 start in ACC play.

The pick to cover the spread favors the Wolfpack largely because of quarterback CJ Bailey and a supporting offensive cast that has produced early returns far stronger than Wake Forest's unit. Bailey has completed 70 percent of his passes for 518 yards and two touchdown passes through two games, while also adding three rushing touchdowns. Running back Hollywood Smothers, a transfer from Oklahoma, has bolstered the ground game and has averaged 6.2 yards per carry over the past two seasons with NC State.

NC State's offense has carried more of the load through the opening two wins over East Carolina and Virginia, with the passing game and Smothers' running ability posing multi-dimensional threats to opposing defenses. The Wolfpack's personnel balance creates a schematic problem: loading the box to stop the run opens intermediate passing lanes for Bailey, while focusing on the pass leaves lanes for Smothers to exploit.

Defensively, NC State has shown some inconsistency in the early going, but the expectation among oddsmakers is that coordinator D.J. Eliot and the Wolfpack unit can tighten up against a Wake Forest offense that has been less convincing. Wake Forest’s season began with a narrow escape against Kennesaw State, a program which recently moved to the FBS level, and the Deacons were held to 10 points in that opener. They followed with a win over Western Carolina in Week 2, but questions remain about depth and offensive balance.

Quarterback Robby Ashford has been a bright spot for Wake Forest, doing much of the heavy lifting in the first two games, but the Deacons have struggled to generate points outside of his production. If NC State can contain Ashford and force other skill-position players to beat them, the Wolfpack’s offensive strengths are likely to yield separation on the scoreboard.

NC State’s coaching staff under Dave Doeren typically emphasizes defensive identity, but early-season stoppages have shifted more responsibility to the offense. If the defense stabilizes as the season progresses, the Wolfpack profile as a team that could contend in a season where the ACC’s pecking order has appeared unsettled. Clemson’s early struggles this year have opened the conference wide enough that multiple programs, including NC State, view themselves as potential challengers if they can solve early inconsistencies.

Betting markets currently favor NC State to cover the 7.5-point spread, and the total of 53.5 reflects an expectation of a moderately high-scoring game given both teams' offensive traits. Handicappers pointing to the Wolfpack note Bailey’s efficiency and Smothers’ production as reasons to trust NC State on the road; skeptics cite Wake Forest’s rivalry-home-field advantage and the unpredictability that accompanies early-season development.

The projection from multiple bookmakers and analysts is for NC State to cover the spread, though the matchup will hinge on how thoroughly Wake Forest can protect Ashford and whether the Deacons can diversify their offense beyond quarterback-generated production. The game also represents an early barometer for both teams' conference aspirations: a Wolfpack win would bolster claims that they can contend in a crowded ACC, while a Demon Deacons victory would quiet early-season criticism and reshape expectations in Winston-Salem.

Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday night, with betting lines and totals subject to minor movement up to game time as injury reports and late money are factored in.