New York Post predicts Week 4 NFL slate with Richter’s model-driven picks

The New York Post published NFL Week 4 predictions from Erich Richter, outlining Sunday and Monday slate picks and the underlying model projections. The feature highlights several anticipated matchups, including a favorable line for the Los Angeles Chargers against the New York Giants, a difficult assignment for a rookie quarterback-led Giants squad, and a set of closer spreads across high-profile games. Richter’s model projects a potential scoring gap in the Chargers-Giants contest, estimating a final range around 27.83 to 16.97 in favor of Los Angeles. The piece frames this as a challenging spot for Big Blue, given the late-season implications and the rookie quarterback’s growing pains.

Among the other highlighted choices, Richter’s model leans toward several close or borderline outcomes: the Pittsburgh Steelers as 2.5-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 3.5-point underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles; and the New Orleans Saints as 16.5-point underdogs to the Buffalo Bills. The model’s edge varies by game, but the analyst notes a pattern of favorable matchups for defenses that have shown strong performance in recent weeks. In addition, Atlanta at Washington, Detroit at Cleveland, and Houston at Tennessee appear in Richter’s spread matrix with a mix of favorable and challenging angles depending on the matchup specifics and pace. A few other notable picks include the New England Patriots at home against the Carolina Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaguars as a 3-point underdog visiting the San Francisco 49ers, where the Jaguars’ fourth-ranked defense by DVOA figures into the calculation.

The Rams’ visit to the Colts, the Chicago Bears hosting the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Kansas City Chiefs’ visit to the Baltimore Ravens also appear in the model’s landscape, with the Chiefs listed as a 3.5-point underdog in one variant and as part of a broader narrative in which Kansas City’s offensive ceiling remains high but the spread looks tight on the road. In the same vein, the Green Bay Packers travel to face the Dallas Cowboys with Green Bay listed as a 7-point favorite, while the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins in a game Richter sees as a potential lower-scoring affair. The Denver Broncos, favored by 7.5 at home against the Cincinnati Bengals, round out the slate in a matchup that observers will monitor for improved Denver efficiency and ball-control design.

The piece also notes the breadth of the model’s projections for multiple games, including the Jacksonville-49ers contest, the Rams-Colts matchup, and the Bears-Raiders clash. In several cases, Richter’s projections suggest the spread could tighten or widen based on late-week injuries, game script, and defensive efficiency against diverse offenses. The overall thread is that several games feature lines that could swing on a single turnover or game-changing play, aligning with the season’s wider variance in results across prominent AFC and NFC matchups. The post emphasizes that these are model-driven projections designed to inform, not guarantee, outcomes for bettors.

Images included with the story depict key elements from the NFL Week 4 landscape and the broader betting context.

The publication also features a visual summary intended to accompany Richter’s Week 4 outlook.

Last week’s results frame this week’s analysis: Richter went 4-12 on Week 3 picks, bringing the season tally to 14-29. The New York Post Betting team notes that Richter has built a reputation for long-shot bets with meaningful returns in the player-prop market over the last two seasons, reporting a return on investment around 30.15 percent since 2022. These figures provide context for readers who follow his weekly selections and model-driven projections as part of a broader coverage of NFL betting trends.

The Week 4 slate features several marquee matchups that will test Richter’s model across a broad spectrum of offenses and defensive units. The Kansas City Chiefs’ clash with the Baltimore Ravens stands out as a “game of the week” scenario, with the model suggesting a tight spread and a potential outright win for Kansas City in certain projections. The Packers’ trip to Dallas also draws attention, given Green Bay’s recent performance and quarterback Jordan Love’s development. Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ road test against the 49ers offers a spotlight on how well Jacksonville can apply their defensive progress against a high-powered San Francisco offense. As with previous weeks, the model weighs yards per play, efficiency metrics, and opponent adjustments to derive projected outcomes while acknowledging the inherent uncertainty that comes with week-to-week NFL results.

Readers are reminded that model-driven predictions are one tool among many in sports betting analysis. They should be considered alongside real-time line movement, injury reports, weather factors, and team-specific dynamics that can shift rapidly as game day approaches. The NY Post Betting team continues to publish weekly predictions, providing readers with data-informed perspectives while encouraging responsible wagering. The Week 4 slate promises another mix of potential upsets and steady performances as teams navigate the early-season stretch.

SOURCE: New York Post – All: NFL predictions, picks for Week 4 slate