NFL Week 2 picks: Jets get points in upset bid; full spreads and best bets

Oddsmakers and handicappers laid out picks against the spread for every NFL Week 2 matchup, headlined by the New York Jets at +6.5 against the Buffalo Bills as a recommended fade of a prime-time miracle win. The slate also includes several single-game leaners and three Best Bets: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.

The Jets’ close loss in Week 1 provided the basis for optimism. New York blew a nine-point fourth-quarter lead before Pittsburgh rallied with 14 points in 43 seconds, a sequence aided by a late out-of-bounds penalty and a fumbled kickoff. Despite the loss, the performance offered encouraging signs: rookie right tackle Armand Membou handled a direct matchup with T.J. Watt without allowing sacks, pressures or QB hits; Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner graded out well; and running back Breece Hall amassed 140 yards from scrimmage (107 rushing, 33 receiving). Quarterback Justin Fields completed several throws into tight windows, and new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand’s play-calling showed creativity and continuity. Those factors, combined with Buffalo’s soft run defense in Week 1 — 238 rushing yards and 8.6 yards per play allowed to Baltimore — underpin the pick of Jets +6.5 on Sunday.

Other Week 2 selections favor the Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) over the New York Giants amid questions about the Giants’ offensive line and the status of left tackle Andrew Thomas, who missed the preseason and Week 1 recovering from foot surgery. New England (+1) is picked over Miami as the Patriots appear to be progressing under Mike Vrabel while the Dolphins try to rebound from a 33-8 loss to Indianapolis. The Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) are a narrow choice over the Cincinnati Bengals, with faith in Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ secondary playmakers to keep the contest close.

A number of games with larger spreads reflect confidence in favored teams. Baltimore (-11.5) is expected to rebound strongly against the Cleveland Browns after the Ravens’ collapse in Buffalo. The Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) are projected to beat the Tennessee Titans, banking on a healthy defense and opportunities created by pressure on rookie quarterback Cam Ward. The Detroit Lions (-6) are chosen over the Chicago Bears as the Lions look to bounce back after an opening loss, while Pittsburgh (-3) is favored over the Seattle Seahawks in a matchup that features ex-Jets quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold.

San Francisco (-3) gets the nod over New Orleans despite the 49ers starting a second consecutive road game without Brock Purdy and George Kittle; the defense is viewed as a stabilizing factor. Arizona (-6.5) is favored at home against the Carolina Panthers, with expectations that Will Johnson can neutralize Panthers rookie Tetairoa McMillan in a key matchup.

Indianapolis (+1.5) is a pick over Denver after the Colts’ Week 1 offensive efficiency; sticking with Daniel Jones and an offense that scored on every drive in the opener is part of the reasoning. Philadelphia (-1) is favored over Kansas City despite the Chiefs’ potent passing attack; the Eagles’ Super Bowl victory margin from February and the absence of Chiefs receivers Rashee Rice (suspended) and Xavier Worthy (shoulder) factor into the lean toward Philadelphia. Minnesota (-3.5) is projected to beat Atlanta as rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy makes his home debut against a Falcons team led by Michael Penix Jr.

Monday’s game sees Tampa Bay (+2.5) over Houston in what is listed as the Lock of the Week, and the Buccaneers are also named among the Best Bets for Week 2. The pick is influenced by Houston’s offensive struggles in Week 1 — nine points, no touchdowns and difficulties on third down — versus Tampa Bay’s veteran skill players, including Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. The Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) are favored over the Las Vegas Raiders; having Justin Herbert and extra preparation days after a Friday win over Kansas City supports the Chargers’ case.

Selections in full include: Cowboys (-5.5) over Giants; Patriots (+1) over Dolphins; Jaguars (+3.5) over Bengals; Ravens (-11.5) over Browns; Rams (-5.5) over Titans; Lions (-6) over Bears; Steelers (-3) over Seahawks; 49ers (-3) over Saints; Cardinals (-6.5) over Panthers; Colts (+1.5) over Broncos; Eagles (-1) over Chiefs; Vikings (-3.5) over Falcons; Buccaneers (+2.5) over Texans (Monday); Chargers (-3.5) over Raiders. Best Bets listed are Buccaneers, Patriots and Eagles, with the Buccaneers designated as the Lock of the Week despite an admitted 0-1 record on locks so far in 2025. The column’s record from the previous week was 5-11 overall and 0-3 on Best Bets; the Thursday selection (Washington Commanders) lost.

Handicappers cited several broader themes for Week 2: fading teams that escaped with late, dramatic prime-time wins; valuing offensive-line and run-game matchups after notable Week 1 performances; and factoring injuries and short weeks into lines, particularly for teams with quick turnarounds such as Buffalo. Bettors are reminded that early-season lines can shift with injury reports and late-week practice observations.

The picks aim to blend matchup-specific analysis with broader season trends. As with any wagering guidance, the selections are opinions based on Week 1 tape, roster notes and travel schedules rather than guarantees. Bettors should monitor injury reports and official scratch lists before placing any wagers.