NFL Week 3 predictions: Richter’s picks center Colts, Packers and more

The New York Post published its NFL Week 3 predictions from betting columnist Erich Richter, outlining a slate of games for Sunday and Monday. Among the top picks, Richter expects the Indianapolis Colts to cover the spread (-3.5) against the Tennessee Titans, while New England (+1.5) is favored to beat Pittsburgh at home. He also projects Tampa Bay (-6.5) to beat the New York Jets, noting that Week 3 features several road favorites with favorable history this season, as road favorites are 9-5 against the spread and 11-3 straight up through two weeks in 2025. The post’s selections weave a mix of proven performers and rising units, emphasizing the evolving landscape of this young NFL campaign.

Richter’s slate includes several marquee matchups and under-the-radar picks alike. The Los Angeles Rams are listed at (+3.5) against the Philadelphia Eagles, a nod to the Rams’ improvement and the franchise’s recent playoff-style competitiveness. The Atlanta Falcons are favored by 5.5 points over the Carolina Panthers, a reflection of the Falcons’ quietly improved defense, which has shown efficiency in limiting big plays. In another intriguing matchup, the Minnesota Vikings are set as 3-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals, with Richter noting that changes at quarterback depth for Cincinnati could influence the outcome. The Texans, listed as a slight underdog at Jacksonville (+1.5), draw interest from Richter’s model, which he says leans toward a tight divisional clash. His projection for that game demonstrates a close contest, underscoring the season’s wide variance at the line.

In the week’s later angles, Richter has Green Bay at home (-7.5) against Cleveland, citing the Packers’ high rankings in offensive and defensive DVOA and the team’s early-season form as reasons to back the favorite. The Los Angeles Chargers are favored by 2.5 points over the Denver Broncos, with Richter highlighting Justin Herbert’s early MVP contention and the Chargers’ higher yards-per-play pace. New Orleans is listed as a 7-point underdog at Seattle, where Richter argues that the difference in DVOA metrics between the two clubs is negligible and that the Saints could stay competitive with disciplined defense and special-teams play.

The slate also features the San Francisco 49ers (-3) over the Arizona Cardinals, a matchup Richter expects San Francisco to control with its stout run defense. Chicago’s Bears (+1) are projected to upset the Dallas Cowboys in a game that has drawn unusual line movement, while the New York Giants (+6.5) face the Kansas City Chiefs in a contest Richter suggests could stay closer than the spread suggests. Baltimore’s Ravens (-4.5) are favored over the Detroit Lions, a nod to Baltimore’s physical defense and the questions facing Detroit’s offense.

Richter’s projections also incorporate quantitative detail from his model. In the Texans-Jaguars clash, his model shows a projected score of 21.68 to 20.32 in favor of Houston, illustrating that the matchup could hinge on a few critical plays in a divisional context. The column notes the trend of road favorites and leverages several data points, including efficiency metrics and recent performance, to explain why certain teams are favored to cover or win outright in Week 3.

The piece closes with a straightforward accounting of results from the prior week and the season to date. Last week’s results stood at 5-9, and the season record through two weeks sits at 10-17, underscoring the inherent volatility of early-season NFL betting and the value of following a consistent model approach alongside on-field developments. Readers are reminded to consult the full slate and latest lines before placing bets, as line movements can shift rapidly in the hours leading up to kickoff.

Source: New York Post – All: NFL predictions, picks for Week 3 slate. The analyst’s work emphasizes a measured, data-informed approach to evaluating the Week 3 landscape, with an eye toward road-winning potential, matchup-specific advantages, and the evolving dynamics of projections across a wide range of games.