NFL Week 4 survivor pool guide: Bills lead as favorites dominate across Week 4

Through three weeks of the NFL season, survivor pools have largely rewarded favorites, and the Week 4 slate looks to continue that pattern. In Circa’s big pool in Las Vegas, about 19.1% of entrants have been eliminated after three weeks, underscoring how often the early picks have hit. Green Bay’s bid to close out a late lead went awry on Sunday, when the Packers squandered a 10-point fourth-quarter advantage and dropped a 13-10 decision to Cleveland. That result, along with the general tilt toward favorites, has bettors weighing whether Week 4’s top options can extend the trend.

Buffalo is the standout in Week 4, boasting the largest projected margin of victory and one of the week’s most popular plays. The Bills are favored by around 16 points against New Orleans, with the Saints projected to struggle as they chase durability and depth across their roster. The matchup follows a rough week for New Orleans, and Buffalo’s Week 3 performance also provided context for decision-makers: roughly 15 percent of entrants had the Bills last week as they narrowly defeated Miami on Thursday Night Football, with Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel rallying his team despite a hot seat. For entrants who already used Buffalo and need an alternative, Week 4 offers several solid options.

Denver’s 7.5-point spread against Cincinnati stands among the week’s notable options. The Broncos fought hard in a recent loss to the Chargers, and their defense remains a cornerstone of their case for Week 4. Last season, Denver ranked No. 4 in defensive DVOA; through early 2025, their unit is still strong, though it has slipped to around No. 14 in the league this year. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has lagged in several efficiency metrics, tied to a weak start that has left them vulnerable in this early stretch. With Jake Browning estimated to operate the Bengals at less than peak efficiency, Denver’s home-field advantage could be a meaningful edge for Week 4 backers. The matchup showcases a clear divide: the Broncos sit atop the yards-per-play metric (net yards per play), while Cincinnati has struggled in that same stat, making Denver a favored anchor for many survivor lineups.

Houston’s 7.5-point spread against Tennessee adds another layer of intrigue. The Texans have been among the season’s disappointments, with their offense and efficiency dipping relative to expectations. Houston ranks 23rd in yards per play (5.0), while Tennessee sits last in the league in that category (3.6). A division clash against the Titans in Week 4 could offer a path to a clean win for those who decide to ride Houston despite the questions around their offense. It’s a matchup that temperate planners may see as advantageous if they’re seeking a lower-variance play later in the season.

Other widely discussed Week 4 choices include the Chargers at the Giants (6.5-point favorites), the Patriots hosting the Panthers (5.5-point favorites), the Packers traveling to face the Cowboys (6.5-point underdogs by the book, but many still view Green Bay as a viable Week 4 option), the Rams at the Colts (3.5-point favorites), and the 49ers at home against the Jaguars (3.5-point favorites). The Dolphins’ late-week line against the Jets sits at roughly 2.5; these teams reflect the broader pattern: a slate heavily weighted toward home-field advantages and mid-range lines that encourage risk-aware decision-making. In practice, many entrants balance the strongest favorites with solid mid-tier options to protect against a potential upset in any single game.

The guide notes that Week 4 presents both opportunity and risk: while Buffalo remains the most compelling single choice for many entrants, diversification remains critical for those seeking to minimize exposure to a potential Week 4 upset. In addition to evaluating traditional metrics such as matchup strength and team efficiency, bettors are advised to consider recent form, injury reports, and the potential for games to stay relatively close if key players are limited or game scripts shift unexpectedly. Some entrants may even choose to delay a Week 4 decision to Monday’s results, depending on pool rules and how heavily they rely on late-week developments. Regardless of approach, the aim is to preserve as much of the field as possible while taking advantage of the week’s most reliable favorites.

As Week 4 unfolds, the conversation around survivor picks will likely focus on which favorites present the best balance of certainty and risk. Buffalo’s dominance on paper positions it as a top default option for many entrants, while Denver’s defense and home-field edge offer an appealing alternative for those who have used Buffalo earlier or who are seeking a structural hedge against possible Week 4 upsets. The Texans, Patriots, Rams, and 49ers also appear as strong options, though each carries its own risk profile that bettors should weigh in the context of their overall pool strategy. The season has already taught participants to respect the variance that can accompany a single-week decision, but Week 4’s slate continues the trend of favored teams holding the advantage, at least in the early goings of the season.