NL wild-card race comes down to wire as Mets, Reds, Diamondbacks chase final playoff spot

With one week left in the regular season, the National League wild-card race is tightening and the Mets find themselves in a high-stakes sprint that could define their season. A year after sneaking into the playoffs and advancing to the NL Championship Series, New York again faces postseason pressure, this time under a glare aimed at a high-payroll lineup led by Juan Soto. The Mets can control only so much of their fate, but their final week will hinge on performance against two quality opponents and the ability of rivals to falter.

Mets open a three-game series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Tuesday and finish the season with three games in Miami. The Cubs hold a three-game edge atop the NL wild-card standings and would host the Padres in a best-of-three wild-card series if the current positions hold. The Cubs were swept in a four-game series by the Reds, a setback that helped sharpen the chase. The Mets have two three-game series left, against the Cubs and the Reds, in which every game matters as they try to chase down a postseason spot anchored by Soto’s presence in the lineup.

Reds surging: Cincinnati has rattled off five straight and climbed into a playoff position, aided by owning the tiebreaker over the Mets after winning the head-to-head series. Up next for the Reds are the Pirates in Cincinnati, followed by the Brewers, with both series at home. The Brewers own the sport’s best record but may not have much to play for if outcomes elsewhere render division clinches or byes moot. Since the Mets lost two of three in Cincinnati earlier this month, the Reds have gone 10-6, while the Mets have dropped 11 of 16, intensifying the urgency for New York over the final three series of the season.

Diamondbacks: Arizona is not out of the race yet, riding a 15-8 run that has left them one game behind the Mets. Like the Reds, Arizona holds the tiebreaker over New York, which heightens the stakes in a crowded field. The D-backs’ closing schedule features three games at the Dodgers, then three in San Diego, setting up a demanding finish. Corbin Carroll has been a driving force in Arizona’s late surge as the club tries to sustain momentum and position itself for a possible wild-card push.

Mets updates and health notes: Tyrone Taylor could be back Tuesday in Chicago, a welcome development for a Mets outfield that has leaned on Cedric Mullins and Jose Siri in recent weeks due to Taylor’s hamstring strain. In the pitching mix, Kodai Senga is expected to face live hitters in Port St. Lucie as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday as he works to prove postseason readiness after being optioned to Triple-A Syracuse to address mechanics. In his last start, Senga allowed four runs on six hits in 3 2/3 innings, a result the team hopes to move beyond as it approaches October.

Outlook: The final weekend will determine which team hosts the NL wild-card series and whether the Mets can capitalize on Soto’s prime season. The Reds and Diamondbacks will push to maintain momentum and carve out favorable outcomes in the tiebreaker scenarios, while the Marlins’ late-season surge could inject additional complexity into the race if they stay alive in the field. Every game carries outsized importance in a race that has already produced dramatic shifts, and teams will be watching standings closely as October approaches.