Opta says Manchester United more likely to be relegated than reach Champions League
Supercomputer gives United 10.95% chance of relegation and 4.18% chance of Champions League qualification after a difficult start to the season
Manchester United have been given a higher probability of relegation than of qualifying for the Champions League this season, according to projections from Opta's supercomputer.
Opta's model, which updates probabilities throughout the campaign, put United's chances of finishing in the Champions League places at 4.18% and their chance of relegation at 10.95% following a run of poor early results. The figures come as United sit 14th in the Premier League after a 3-0 home defeat to local rivals Manchester City and an earlier second-round Carabao Cup exit to League Two side Grimsby Town.
United have won one of their first four league matches, a late 3-2 victory over Burnley, and are competing only in domestic competitions this season after failing to qualify for Europe last term. Opta's projections suggested a finish around 13th is possible should current trends persist; that would represent an improvement on last season's 15th-place finish but fall far short of the club's recent standards.
Manager Rúben Amorim, who took charge last season, acknowledged the criticism but said he would not abandon his principles. "I understand everything. It is normal. The result, I accept that. I don't see it that way, we are doing better than the results," Amorim said after the derby. "The record says everything. My message to fans: I will do everything. Always thinking about what is best for the club. Until I'm here, I'll do my best. The rest is not my decision. I'm suffering more [than the fans]. I accept, it is not a record you should have at Manchester United. There are a lot of things you have no idea what has happened. But I am not going to change my philosophy. I play my way and I am going to play my way."
Opta also noted Amorim's overall win rate at United is 26%, the third-lowest among managers who have taken charge of more than 20 games at the club. Since his appointment, United are bottom among ever-present Premier League teams in that same period.
Outside Old Trafford, Opta's model named Liverpool as the favourites to win the Premier League, giving them a 51.12% chance of retaining the title, with Arsenal at 26.74%. For Champions League qualification spots outside last season's top four, Crystal Palace were rated the most likely new entrant at 23.66%, narrowly ahead of Newcastle United on 23.16%.
On the other end of the table, Burnley, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Sunderland topped relegation probabilities, with Burnley at 52.23%, Wolves at 50.76% and Sunderland at 46.02%.
United will look to respond at home to Chelsea in their next league fixture as the season approaches its first international break. The club faces mounting pressure to improve results in a campaign that remains in its early stages but has already produced sharply negative statistical forecasts from an industry-standard data provider.