Opta simulations name Liverpool favourites for 2025-26 Champions League; Spurs given 1% chance
Supercomputer runs 10,000 scenarios and places Liverpool top, Arsenal second, with Tottenham among long shots
Opta's supercomputer, after 10,000 simulated tournaments, projected Liverpool as the most likely winners of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League, giving the Premier League champions a 20.4% chance of lifting the trophy.
The simulation set listed Arsenal second with a 16.0% probability and Paris Saint-Germain third at 12.1%. Manchester City and Barcelona were each assigned an 8.4% chance, Chelsea 7.0% and Real Madrid 5.8%. Newcastle United, returning to the competition after a one-year absence, were given a 3.0% chance. Tottenham Hotspur were among the least likely, with a 1.1% probability of winning the tournament.
Opta's results also offered stage-progression estimates. Liverpool were projected to reach the final in 34.0% of simulations and the quarterfinals in 72.7%. Arsenal were given a 44.8% chance of reaching the semifinals. City were estimated to have an 8.4% chance of winning, a 16.6% chance of reaching the final and a 31.1% chance of reaching the semifinals. Tottenham, while long shots for the title, were assigned a 22.9% probability of reaching the quarterfinals.
The 2025-26 Champions League starts next week under the expanded format that features 36 teams and a league phase in which each club plays eight matches. Under the new structure, the top eight teams in the league-phase standings automatically progress to the knockout round, while clubs finishing ninth through 24th enter a play-off round for places in the last 16.
PSG enter the competition as defending champions after defeating Inter Milan in the 2024-25 final. Six Premier League teams will compete in this edition: Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle and Tottenham, the latter having qualified as Europa League winners.
Matchday one fixtures include Arsenal at Athletic Bilbao, Liverpool hosting Atletico Madrid at Anfield, Manchester City hosting Napoli and Newcastle welcoming Barcelona. Tottenham begin their campaign at home to Villarreal and will also face Monaco, PSG and Borussia Dortmund in the league phase.
Opta's simulations reflect form, squad strength and projected match outcomes across a large range of possible results but are not predictions of a single outcome. The Champions League calendar runs alongside domestic schedules, with the Europa League scheduled to begin on Sept. 24 and the Europa Conference League on Oct. 2.
Liverpool's top ranking in the simulations follows their domestic success under manager Arne Slot and signals expectations that they can translate league form into a deep European run. Arsenal's projection to reach the latter stages continues the club's progression under Mikel Arteta, while PSG will be watched closely as they attempt to defend their title. The new format and a congested fixture list will test squad depth across Europe as the season unfolds.