Ryder Cup supercomputer projects USA to win at Bethpage Black by one point
USA favored 57.1% to win at Bethpage Black, with a one-point margin the most likely outcome, per Boyle Sports model.
Two days before play begins at Bethpage Black, a Boyle Sports supercomputer projects Team USA as the favorite to win the Ryder Cup, with the most likely margin of victory being a single point. The model assigns the United States a 57.1% chance to win, Europe 35.3%, and a 7.6% chance of a drawn finish. The odds imply a 42.9% likelihood that Europe would still retain the trophy, if a draw is included in the outcome.
Ten thousand simulations were used, drawing on betting odds and historical data to produce final probabilities. If Europe manage to silence the home crowd with a win, they would become the first team to defend the Ryder Cup away from home since the Miracle of Medina in 2012. Bethpage Black, a public course about 40 miles east of Manhattan, hosts the biannual competition beginning Friday morning and running into the weekend.
The model further outlines several score scenarios. The likeliest final score is USA 14.5, Europe 13.5, a one-point victory for the hosts with a 14.4% probability. The second-most likely score is a USA win by 18.5 to 9.5, carrying a 12.5% probability. A USA victory by 19 to 9 is rated at 5.7%, while the reverse (a Europe win by those margins) sits at about 2.3%. There is still some hope for Europe in the margins, with the third most likely outcome listed as a narrow 14.5-13.5 victory at 10.4%.
The projection also notes a historical pattern: each of the last five Ryder Cups has been decided by five points or more, and the chances of another similarly one-sided contest are estimated at 56.8%. The competition is expected to draw global attention as the United States hosts, with former U.S. president Donald Trump expected to attend on the first day.
Bethpage Black’s layout and the charged atmosphere near New York have long been part of Ryder Cup lore, and the 2025 edition adds another chapter to the event’s evolving narrative. As the opening rounds approach, teams and fans will weigh the computer’s odds alongside players’ form, course conditions, and dynamic team pairings, all of which can shift the balance across the event’s first two days.