Steelers favored over Rodgers’ former team as Jets open with Justin Fields in Week 1

The New York Jets will open the NFL season Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a matchup that pits Aaron Rodgers against the franchise that released him and hands Justin Fields his first start in a Jets uniform.

New York Post betting analyst Matt Ehalt favored the Steelers by three points, listing Steelers -3 (-110, BetMGM) as his best bet for Week 1. Ehalt cited Pittsburgh’s depth on offense and a stout defense as reasons the Steelers could control the tone of a low-scoring game and spoil coach Aaron Glenn’s debut on the Jets sideline.

Rodgers, 41, did not play in the preseason, leaving questions about his timing and chemistry with new targets such as D.K. Metcalf. The narrative entering the game is also personal: Rodgers has said he felt disrespected by the manner in which the Jets released him, and pundits expect that edge to shape his preparation and intent for the season opener.

Justin Fields will get the start for the Jets as the team leans on a run-heavy scheme. New York’s backfield includes Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, and training camp reports indicated that the offense was often oriented toward rushing attempts rather than downfield passing. Those same reports raised concerns that Fields and the Jets’ passing game did not reach consistent timing in camp.

Garrett Wilson remains the Jets’ primary receiving threat, but analysts note a lack of a proven No. 2 wideout that could matter when the Jets need to rally in the second half. The Jets’ chances to sustain drives and come from behind suffered another blow this week when starting offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker was ruled out for the season with a serious injury.

The Steelers enter Week 1 with a defense many evaluators consider among the league’s better units. If Pittsburgh can force an early deficit, observers say the Jets’ run-first plan and a passing attack still finding cohesion could struggle to respond quickly. Ehalt argued that while Pittsburgh is not an elite team overall, it possesses more offensive weapons than New York and that depth could decide the game late.

The matchup also raises questions about continuity and matchups. Rodgers, who joined a new roster in the offseason, faces the challenge of integrating with teammates without the benefit of preseason snaps. Fields, meanwhile, must deliver in his first start amid a ground-first game plan and after a training camp that some reports described as uneven for the passing game.

Special teams, turnovers and the first half will be watched closely as possible inflection points. Betting markets and handicappers have homed in on the early series as a way to determine whether the Jets can impose their ground game or whether Pittsburgh’s defense will dictate a more conservative, low-scoring contest.

Ehalt’s pick reflects both matchup assessments and the betting market line, and the New York Post’s betting notes emphasize the premise that Rodgers’ motivation and Pittsburgh’s defensive strengths make the Steelers the safer choice against the spread. Bettors and viewers will also be monitoring whether Rodgers’ lack of preseason reps limits his ability to stretch the field early and whether Fields can convert short fields into scoring drives when New York needs points.

Kickoff is set for Sunday, and the game will serve as an early test for personnel changes, coaching transitions and how both quarterbacks and their staffs respond under Week 1 pressure.