Tasmanian AFL stadium recommendation rejected in damning planning report, putting 2028 expansion at risk

A state planning commission has recommended that a proposed $945 million stadium at Hobart's Macquarie Point should not proceed, delivering a major setback to Tasmania's bid for an Australian Football League licence in 2028.

In a final report released Wednesday, the commission said the waterfront project would cause "irrevocable and unacceptable adverse impacts on Hobart's spatial and landscape character, urban form and historic cultural heritage" and that the development was "too big for the site". The panel concluded the stadium would offer "almost no scope for the site to become a vibrant active place that is attractive to visit outside of major event mode" and recommended the project should not proceed.

The commission also assessed the financial consequences of building and operating the venue, saying the project would impose a "substantial net social cost" on the Tasmanian community. It estimated the state would need to accumulate about $1 billion in debt to cover construction, rising to as much as $1.8 billion over 10 years. That projection contrasts with a pledge by the state Liberal government to cap its contribution at $375 million.

The recommendation is not binding, but the report could influence parliamentary debate ahead of a vote on whether to approve the stadium. Both the Liberal and Labor parties support the project, meaning it is expected to pass the lower house. The fate of the proposal is less certain in the upper house, where a number of independents who hold the balance of power are either opposed or undecided.

The Macquarie Point stadium has been one of Tasmania's most divisive infrastructure proposals. The AFL stipulated a roofed, waterfront venue in negotiations with the Tasmanian government as a condition for granting the league's 19th licence, and AFL chief executive Andrew Dillon has repeatedly said that entry for Tasmania would depend on the stadium being built, encapsulated in the league's "no stadium, no team" stance.

Critics of the waterfront design have argued the stadium is unnecessary because AFL matches already occur in the state at two existing venues, and questioned whether Macquarie Point is suitable for a large, roofed stadium. The planning commission's report highlighted concerns that the scheme's scale and design would diminish Hobart's historic character and limit the site's everyday public use.

The commission's cost appraisal raises further political and fiscal questions. Aside from the state's pledged cap, the report noted the long-term operating costs and the likelihood that public debt would grow significantly under the current plan. Those figures are expected to feature prominently in parliamentary debate and in discussions by independents weighing their votes.

Despite the uncertainty over the stadium, the Tasmanian AFL applicant club, known as the Devils, has continued preparatory steps. The club announced earlier moves to field teams in the Victorian Football League (VFL) and Victorian Football League Women's (VFLW) competitions beginning in 2026, a development intended to lay a competitive and administrative foundation ahead of senior AFL entry.

The AFL currently fields 18 teams and has indicated it is open to expansion, but the league has tied Tasmania's licence to the delivery of a modern, roofed stadium. Should the parliament ultimately reject the Macquarie Point proposal, the AFL and the Tasmanian government would face immediate pressure to renegotiate the conditions of entry or to identify an alternative venue that satisfies the league's requirements.

Political leaders and AFL officials must now respond to the commission's findings. The planning report sets a high bar for proponents to demonstrate how the project could avoid the environmental, heritage and social costs the commission identified, and how the state would manage potential debt outcomes without exceeding its publicly stated funding cap.

The decision will shape the timing and viability of Tasmania's place in the national competition and could influence broader debates over major infrastructure priorities and waterfront development in Hobart. Parliamentary consideration and any subsequent public announcements from state ministers, independents and the AFL are expected in the coming weeks as stakeholders digest the report and assess their options.