Tennessee at Mississippi State tests SEC fate as Vols seek must-win

Tennessee travels to Starkville on Saturday as a 7.5-point favorite in a showdown that could define the Vols’ season. No. 15 Tennessee is in a must-win spot after a loss to Georgia last week, a result that threatens any chance of returning to the College Football Playoff. The game at Davis Wade Stadium pits a Vols squad trying to steady its footing against a Mississippi State team that has shown flashes of progress under coach Jeff Lebby in his second season.

Mississippi State is led by sixth-year quarterback Blake Shapen, who has completed 66 percent of his throws and is averaging 220 yards per game. Shapen missed most of last year, an absence that contributed to the Bulldogs’ rough progress, but he has recaptured some of the form that prompted the move to Starkville. He has weaponry in Anthony Evans III and Brenen Thompson, with running back Fluff Bothwell capable of moving the chains on the ground. The Bulldogs have already defeated Arizona State and have taken care of lesser opponents like Southern Miss and Northern Illinois, giving Mississippi State some confidence heading into this SEC showdown. Tennessee is on a higher level than those teams, and the Vols’ defense will be tested by Shapen’s efficiency and Mississippi State’s options. If they can stay in striking distance, the home crowd and the cowbells at Davis Wade could become a factor as the game wears on.

That dynamic shapes the expectation for the weekend: can Shapen keep pace with Joey Aguilar, Tennessee’s quarterback, and can Mississippi State generate enough explosive plays to stay in the game? Aguilar, who earned a start for Tennessee this season and is firmly at the helm of the Volunteers’ offense, will be facing a Bulldogs unit that impressed by carving up the Vols for more than 40 points in recent matchups. Tennessee’s offense has the talent to answer, but the risk in Starkville is real, and the atmosphere figures to be loud, physical, and decisive.

The betting line reflects the challenge for Mississippi State, with the Bulldogs catching 7.5 points at FanDuel (odds listed at -115 for the underdog side). The market view highlights Mississippi State’s potential to stay within reach if Shapen plays at a high level and the ground game can take some pressure off the passing game. The information comes from New York Post Betting, which notes the matchup’s appeal for bettors who want to gauge whether Mississippi State can turn momentum from earlier-season wins into a signature SEC win. The question remains whether Tennessee’s defense, which faced a stiff test against Georgia, can limit the higher-volume attack Mississippi State brings to Starkville.

In this context, the game carries significant implications for both programs. Tennessee needs a win not only to rebound from last week’s loss but also to keep its CFP hopes alive in a league where every conference result matters. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is aiming to prove this season could be different from years past by delivering a statement against a top-20 opponent and showing the growth that Lebby has been building in his second year. The outcome could influence perceptions around the team’s trajectory, bowl eligibility, and the progression of Shapen, Evans III, Thompson, and Bothwell as core pieces for the Bulldogs going forward.

Ultimately, the atmosphere in Davis Wade Stadium could play a decisive role if the game remains tight into the fourth quarter. The matchups to watch include MSU’s ability to protect Shapen and create rhythm against Tennessee’s defense, and Aguilar’s efficiency in answering every MSU drive with a scoring response. With kickoff approaching, fans in Starkville and volunteers supporters elsewhere will be watching closely to see which program takes a step toward turning a promising season into tangible results.