Two NFL Week 2 Betting Lines Seen as Too Wide, Per New York Post

The New York Post on Wednesday identified two early NFL Week 2 betting lines it considers too wide, singling out San Francisco’s game with New Orleans and Arizona’s matchup with Carolina, and noting that early movement could create middling opportunities for bettors.

After favorites went 13-3 straight up and 9-7 against the spread in Week 1, the Post said the goal of early Week 2 predictions is to capture closing-line value. The piece used BetMGM odds for its examples and cautioned that injuries and market reaction can quickly alter lines.

The most notable discrepancy the Post highlighted is San Francisco listed as a 4.5-point favorite over New Orleans on early lookahead odds, down from an initial 7.5-point opening. The Post pointed to uncertainty around 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who is dealing with a non-throwing shoulder issue and a toe injury, and to tight end George Kittle, who has been fully ruled out. The article said receiver Jauan Jennings has a chance to play. Despite the injury notes, the Post’s writer projected Purdy will play and predicted the line will move back toward a full touchdown, creating a potential middle with Saints +7 if the market retraces.

In the Arizona-Carolina game, the Post identified Carolina at plus-7 as a "sneaky" underdog. The line initially opened with Arizona favored by 4.5 points, the Post said, and early action had pushed some money onto the Cardinals. The Post cited Arizona’s penchant for unexpectedly dropping winnable games — noting a recent game in which Spencer Rattler drove a late scoring threat against Arizona — as a reason to expect some bettors to buy back on Carolina, which could generate middling opportunities if the Cardinals settle around minus-4.

The Post also invoked the difficulty of consistently beating game-day sides and totals, quoting The Ringer’s Raheem Palmer: “It’s gotta be legitimately easier to be a doctor, lawyer or engineer than beating (game day) NFL sides and totals consistently year after year.” The article framed its early-week recommendations as attempts to identify edges before injury news and market wagers push closing lines away from opening prices.

The Post’s piece included a sidebar on betting credentials, noting that its betting analysts have had success in player-prop markets and referencing return-on-investment figures. It reiterated that lines are fluid and that bettors seeking value often monitor injury reports and public money to look for opportunities to create middles or capture favorable closing-line movement.

NFL odds and injury statuses can change rapidly in the days leading up to kickoff. The Post’s early Week 2 take reflects one outlet’s attempt to anticipate those shifts and to identify situations where bettors might secure value if lines revert or move in predictable directions.