UFC Noche predictions: Full-card picks, key matchups and best bets for San Antonio Fight Night

The UFC returns to San Antonio on Mexican Independence Day with a 14-fight card that goes live at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+. New York Post betting analyst Erich Richter published full-card picks and predictions ahead of the event, highlighting several competitive matchups on the main card and prelims.

Richter singled out the Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva fight as a clash of heavy hitters that could defy expectations for a quick finish, predicting the fight will go the distance. Lopes, who challenged for a title and lost a five-round decision to Alexander Volkanovski, is durable but has shown vulnerabilities to low-leg kicks. Silva arrives riding a six-fight win streak with five finishes and is viewed as a dangerous striker, though his defensive grappling has been questioned. Richter wrote that those offensive strengths may balance out and produce a longer fight than many expect.

Another marquee selection from Richter was Rob Font in a bantamweight bout against late-replacement David Martinez. Martinez stepped in on short notice for Raul Rosas Jr., and Richter noted the disparity in experience. Font has faced a top-tier slate that includes Jose Aldo, Cody Garbrandt and Sergio Pettis and is ranked No. 14 at 135 pounds by Fight Matrix. Martinez has two UFC fights on his ledger and, Richter assessed, faces a steep jump in competition. The pick: Font by decision.

Richter provided recommendations across the card beyond those headliners, offering moneylines, prop-style plays and a few passes. His other selections included Jared Gordon in the Rafa Garcia fight for parlay considerations, a takedown prop on Kelvin Gastelum against Dustin Stoltzfus, a pick for Alexander Hernandez over Diego Ferreira, and picks on several lightweight and welterweight bouts. He listed Joaquim Silva on the moneyline against Claudio Puelles and forecast that Tatiana Suarez’s matchup with Amanda Lemos will go the distance. Richter left certain fights off his card, including Jose Daniel Medina vs. Dusko Todorovic and Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Daniil Donchenko, marking them as passes.

Richter’s write-up included specific sportsbooks and odds for several plays. The Lopes–Silva pick for the fight to go the distance was shown at +255 at BetRivers, Font by decision was listed at +135 at Fanatics Sportsbook, and other lines cited included DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM and ESPN BET for various selections. Richter’s work appears in the New York Post’s betting coverage, where he frequently publishes recommendations across combat sports and other events.

Context for the picks reflects recent form and stylistic matchups. Lopes’ title challenge ended in a five-round loss to Volkanovski earlier this year, a fight that exposed certain technical gaps such as leg-kick defense. Silva’s string of finishes established him as a knockout threat, but opponents and observers have noted vulnerabilities when pressured on the ground. Font’s lengthy résumé against top bantamweights was a central point in favoring him by decision over the less experienced Martinez, who has shown promise but has not yet faced opponents at Font’s level.

Richter’s profile in the Post’s betting coverage includes a track record he cites in the story: a reported return on investment of 30.15 percent since 2022 and experience as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt. The analysis combines stylistic notes, recent results and available lines to produce a slate of plays intended for readers tracking fight-night odds.

The UFC card coincides with a major boxing event featuring Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford, making the weekend a significant one in combat sports and likely to split viewer attention and wagering interest. UFC Noche’s broadcast schedule, beginning at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+, will carry the 14 fights through the evening in San Antonio.

Richter’s pieces present viewpoint-driven betting recommendations rather than official odds or guarantees, and lines can change before fighters enter the Octagon. The event and its outcomes will provide new data points for rankings and future matchups in several divisions.