UMass seeks to cover 44.5-point spread as Missouri hosts Minutemen

UMass travels to Columbia to face No. 20 Missouri as 44.5-point underdogs on Saturday, the latest test for a Minutemen program rebooting its MAC-era return.

Missouri, undefeated after a 29-20 win over South Carolina last weekend, will enjoy a bye week after this game before a demanding stretch that includes Alabama, Auburn and Vanderbilt. The Tigers are expected to approach the matchup with a priority on control and continuity, using this game to sharpen execution and manage personnel as they prepare for the season's tougher tests.

UMass is in its second MAC stint under coach Joe Harasymiak. The Minutemen opened with a lopsided loss at Temple, followed by a one-point defeat to Bryant and a setback at Iowa. Through three games, UMass has not thrown a touchdown through the air and has used three different quarterbacks, highlighting early-season instability on offense as Amherst charts its path back to competitiveness in the conference.

Missouri's run-heavy offense: 61.8% of plays are rushes, a rate that helps keep the clock moving and can shorten games against overmatched opponents. The Tigers showed they can sustain drives and distribute carries across a depth chart in last weekend's 29-20 win over South Carolina, a performance that reinforces confidence as they head into a bye week and prepare for a challenging sequence of nonconference and conference games.

With that context, the betting market treats the game as Missouri's stage to demonstrate its depth and UMass's resilience. The spread sits at 44.5 points, a number that implies a comfortable Missouri win but also leaves room for late-game variance. New York Post Betting highlighted UMass +44.5 (-110, FanDuel) as the recommended play, citing Missouri's potent run game and the Minutemen's need to stay within striking distance as a path to cover if favorable late-game scenarios develop.

Last season's narrative adds context for fans watching the rebuilding program. UMass went 2-10, with several near-misses that suggested improvement was on the horizon. The departure of longtime coach Don Brown paused momentum that had formed during the previous tenure, and this season's transition has tested depth, recruiting and the ability to convert opportunities into points. The program's MAC return has added a level of pressure and expectation as Amherst works to regain consistency against programs from the conference and out of it.

Missouri's coaching staff, led by Eli Drinkwitz, has shown a willingness to rotate players and manage workloads as the season progresses. The Tigers are well stocked on both sides of the ball, and the game against UMass offers a chance to tune up for the next stretch without sacrificing performance in a favorable spot. The approach suggests Missouri could build a lead early and use the bye week to rest key players before a blockbuster run of games.

Bottom line: This matchup is less about a guaranteed cover and more about how well UMass can stay within striking distance and avoid giving away big plays early. While the betting market favors Missouri, the potential for a late score or two to push a backdoor cover remains a talking point for bettors who see value in the 44.5-point spread. The clash also serves as a barometer for UMass’s progress under Harasymiak in the MAC, and for Missouri, it offers a controlled environment to implement rotations before a demanding sequence of games.