USF Seeks Group of Five Supremacy at Florida After Upset of Boise State

South Florida arrives in Gainesville on Saturday with a case to be considered the Group of Five standard-bearer after a lopsided victory over then-No. 25 Boise State last week.

Coach Alex Golesh, who took over a program that had won 15 games in the five seasons before his arrival in 2023, has guided the Bulls to back-to-back 7-6 seasons capped by bowl wins. With dynamic quarterback Byrum Brown leading an offense bolstered by a retooled defense, USF’s 34-7 rout of Boise State has given the program confidence as it prepares to face No. 13 Florida at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Bulls also have games at No. 5 Miami on the immediate horizon, part of a stretch that will shape their résumé for the College Football Playoff selection committee’s automatic Group of Five spot.

Boise State had long been viewed as the benchmark among Group of Five programs and was a trendy preseason pick to earn the highest-ranked Group of Five champion’s access to the College Football Playoff. USF’s decisive win over the Broncos has prompted discussion about whether that designation could shift; the Bulls can bolster their case by keeping it close at Florida or pulling off an upset in Gainesville and following it with another strong showing at Miami.

The AP’s weekly picks and score projections for this week’s FBS-vs.-FBS games include a mix of expected blowouts and tighter contests. Penn State, after scoring on its first nine possessions in a dominant performance against Nevada, was projected to win handily, 45-7, with the Nittany Lions still seeking more production from the running game. LSU was forecast to bounce back offensively under Garrett Nussmeier and capitalize on a defense led by Harold Perkins Jr. and Whit Weeks, with a 52-3 projection.

Oregon was chosen to outpace Oklahoma State 40-7, with the pick noting the disparity in NIL spending cited this week and forecasting a clear edge for the Ducks. Texas was projected to respond emphatically after recent setbacks, with a 47-3 scoreline predicted as the Longhorns face a nonconference opponent. Clemson, coming off a 10-point outing against LSU, was picked to rebound with a 44-6 win in Death Valley.

Illinois drew a 31-21 projection in a matchup the pick described as Bret Bielema’s best Illini team in years. Mississippi State was forecast to defeat Arizona State 28-24 as the Bulldogs aim to secure a top-15 scalp. In the marquee Group of Five-versus-Power Five matchup, Florida was projected to hold off South Florida, 35-27, with the Gators favored after a season-opening 55-0 victory over Long Island University and the Bulls buoyed by last week’s statement win.

Oklahoma was chosen to prevail 28-21 in a night game in Norman, while Iowa State was picked to beat its opponent 24-17, reflecting confidence in Rocco Becht’s continued development. Baylor and SMU’s high-scoring tendencies produced a tight projection of 45-43 in favor of Baylor. Texas A&M was forecast to dominate, 47-9, after a tepid win over UTSA that exposed run-defense issues.

Ole Miss was picked to defeat Kentucky 33-21 as the Rebels seek to erase last season’s home setback that derailed their College Football Playoff hopes. Alabama drew a 49-10 projection in what the pick called a must-have week for Kalen DeBoer’s team following a stumble against Florida State. Indiana, after gaining 502 yards and 309 on the ground in a 27-14 win over Old Dominion, was forecast to tighten up its red-zone performance and win 35-7. Texas Tech, with Behren Morton under center and a recent streak of 50-point games, was projected to rout Kent State, 62-10.

The AP panel’s predictions finished last week with a 10-3 mark straight up and a 5-8 record against the spread, matching the season totals through the early slate of games. The picks reflect early-season adjustments, injuries and matchup considerations as teams settle into conference play and finalize preparations for the more consequential portions of their schedules.

For USF, the immediate test is clear: a competitive performance in Gainesville would help validate the Bulls’ rapid climb and keep them in conversation for the Group of Five’s lone path to the College Football Playoff. For Florida, the game is a chance to reaffirm its ranking against a surging, confident opponent. The wider schedule this weekend will test several ranked teams expected to rack up lopsided scores, but a handful of games could produce upsets that alter the national picture as teams jockey for position heading into September conference play.