Vikings favored over Giants; Chargers favored over Cowboys in Week 16 bets

In Week 16, the NFL betting picture centers on the Minnesota Vikings as a 3-point favorite over the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog against the Dallas Cowboys, according to the latest odds in the New York Post Betting guide. Veteran bettor Matt Ehalt, now in his second season of the NFL Bettor’s Guide, outlines why those lines reflect recent form and late-season narratives that could shape the playoff picture.

The Vikings have won two straight and are showing incremental improvement, even though they are not viewed as a dominant force. New York, meanwhile, appeared to have checked out in a recent loss to the Commanders at MetLife Stadium, a game in which the division rival backed by a backup quarterback kept the Giants at bay. The matchup presents an opportunity for Minnesota to lean on its running game while utilizing J.J. McCarthy to maximize opportunities with Justin Jefferson. Giants rookie Jaxson Dart has seen his play dip since returning from a concussion, and he will face a challenging test this week against Brian Flores’ exotic defense. If Minnesota can control the clock and capitalize on big plays, the Vikings could extend New York’s struggles, though a defeat would keep the Giants as the holders of the No. 1 pick for the upcoming draft.

The Giants arrive with questions about quarterback play and a defense that has struggled against both the pass and the run, while Minnesota tries to build consistency entering the final stretch of the season. Jefferson’s impact remains central for the Vikings, and McCarthy’s decision-making and accuracy in a high-pressure environment will be closely watched as he works to link up with his star receiver. Flores’ unit has shown the ability to disrupt rookie quarterbacks with varied looks, and a strong performance here could tilt the outcome in a close game. Overall, the Vikings appear positioned to win at home, but an upset by the underdog Giants could alter the trajectory of both teams’ postseason hopes and, for New York, its draft position.

Los Angeles comes to Dallas at 10-4 and is riding momentum after back-to-back wins against strong opposition and a dominant performance against the Raiders. The Chargers have generated positive results in recent weeks, and the matchup against a Cowboys squad that has shown defensive regressions offers a path for Los Angeles to keep pace in the AFC West and strengthen its wild-card case. Dallas, despite having talent on both sides of the ball, has struggled to sustain consistent performance on defense, which could provide the Chargers with opportunities to move the ball and keep the game within reach. If Dallas can limit mistakes, the Cowboys retain the advantage at home, but Los Angeles is playing with urgency and has the talent to pressure Dallas’ defense and create explosive plays through the air and on the ground.

The Chargers remain a strong shot to influence the AFC West race, and a Week 16 win would help them stay in the conversation for a postseason berth. Herbert’s accuracy and decision-making have been decisive in recent wins, and the Chargers’ defense has shown signs of improvement in critical moments. The Cowboys’ defense will be tested by Los Angeles’ balanced attack, and the result could hinge on turnover margins and red-zone efficiency. In a game with playoff implications for both teams, Los Angeles is tasked with translating momentum into a decisive performance on the road.

2025 record: 10-18-2. Last week: 2-0; Chargers (W); Bills (W).

Matt Ehalt has been picking against the spread since his childhood days when he joined his father’s newspaper pool and even took the top prize on more than one occasion. He specializes in NFL wagers and is widely cited for his insights into today’s professional football betting landscape, including Week 16 lines and the evolving dynamics of late-season matchups.