Week 1 NFL best bets: Flacco, Irving, Robinson and Kamara highlighted in player-prop picks
New York Post bettor Erich Richter targets an aging quarterback in a shootout spot and receiving threats out of the backfield for opening-week player props
Erich Richter of the New York Post released a set of Week 1 player-prop best bets that target an expected shootout and receiving production from running backs in multiple games. Richter singled out Baltimore starter Joe Flacco, Tampa Bay back Bucky Irving, Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson and New Orleans receiver-back Alvin Kamara for wagers based on matchup data and recent usage trends.
Richter described the player-prop market as particularly beatable in Week 1 and recommended several over/under plays and larger ladder bets. The selections pair traditional totals with longer-shot outcomes at sportsbooks including bet365, DraftKings, BetMGM and Fanatics Sportsbook.
The top quarterback target is Flacco to clear 235.5 passing yards at -115 with bet365. Richter pointed to Cincinnati’s susceptibility to high-yardage passing games; the Bengals allowed 223.5 passing yards per game and 25.5 points per game last season and were involved in multiple shootouts. Cincinnati yielded a 414-yard game to Russell Wilson in December, and Flacco has produced high-yardage outings in recent seasons — topping 300 yards twice last season and clearing the 235.5 mark in four of seven starts. Flacco’s combination of experience and a game script that could force Baltimore to throw more were cited as reasons to target the number, with longer ladder options also available, including 300+ yards and 400+ yard long shots.
Richter’s Tampa Bay running-back target is Bucky Irving, with a rushing-yard line of 66.5 (-110, BetMGM) and a larger 125+ rushing-and-receiving-yard ladder (+320, bet365). With Buccaneers receiver Chris Godwin expected to miss the opener, Richter forecasted a higher overall workload for Irving and noted his development as a receiving threat late in his rookie season. Atlanta allowed 34.5 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs last season — the 10th-worst mark in the NFL — and surrendered the second-most receiving touchdowns to backs (six). Irving produced multiple games with meaningful receiving yardage as the season progressed, and Richter framed the matchup as conducive to both rushing and receiving production.
On the other sideline, Richter recommended backing Bijan Robinson to surpass 100.5 total rushing-and-receiving yards (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook) and to exceed modest reception totals. Robinson’s matchup with Tampa Bay drew attention because the Buccaneers allowed the second-most receptions to opposing running backs (107) last season and yielded 137.8 rushing-and-receiving yards per game to opposing backfields, the third-worst mark in the league. Richter projected a game script that could feature heavy backfield involvement and recommended targeting Robinson’s reception line alongside scrimmage-yardage outcomes.
Richter also identified Alvin Kamara as a player-likely to benefit from quick, short completions behind a young Cardinals quarterback. With Spencer Rattler expected to rely on checkdowns, Richter listed several receiving-based targets for Kamara: more than 4.5 receptions (+102, FanDuel) and various receiving-yard thresholds at bet365, including 40+, 50+ and 60+ yard outcomes. The Cardinals allowed 667 receiving yards to opposing running backs last season, a top-10 figure, and Richter cited Kamara’s history of consistent receiving production when used as a checkdown option.
The column presented specific lines and odds: Flacco over 235.5 passing yards (-115, bet365) with larger 300+ and 400+ yard ladders; Irving over 66.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM) and 125+ scrimmage at longer odds; Robinson over 100.5 rushing-and-receiving yards (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook) and reception targets; and multiple Kamara reception and receiving-yard props across FanDuel and bet365. Richter also noted the availability of ladder bets that pay larger returns for higher thresholds, acknowledging the increased variance of such plays.
Richter’s betting résumé was referenced in the Post’s piece. The column noted that he has posted a 30.15 percent return on investment in the player-prop market since 2022 while frequently targeting long-shot outcomes.
The recommendations mix statistical matchup analysis and recent usage trends to identify exploitable lines for Week 1. Bettors and observers should note that opening-week injuries, game-time decisions and last-minute depth-chart changes can affect player roles and outcome probabilities. The column’s selections reflected expectations for shootouts and increased running-back receiving work in specific matchups, but outcomes will depend on actual game scripts and opponent adjustments.
Richter’s Week 1 player-prop selections add to a broad slate of early-season wagering options and serve as examples of how matchup-based analysis can inform short-term betting strategies. The New York Post column lists precise lines and odds for readers who wish to evaluate the suggested plays ahead of kickoff.
