Week 3 College Football Picks: South Florida, Memphis and Western Michigan Among Best Bets

The New York Post's college football Week 3 betting column identified three best bets for Saturday's slate, headlined by a pick on the South Florida Bulls to cover a large spread at No. 5 Miami. The other selections are Memphis to cover at Troy and Western Michigan to take points at Illinois.

South Florida, a Group of 5 program that began the season unheralded, is listed as the top play. The Bulls opened with a 35-7 victory over Boise State in Week 1 and followed with a shocking road upset at Florida in Week 2. Those wins left USF allowing only 23 points through two games and forced bettors and oddsmakers to reassess the team's outlook. Despite that start, the betting market installed Miami as roughly a three-score favorite for Saturday's meeting in Coral Gables; New York Post analyst Michael Leboff recommends taking South Florida at +17.5 (‑115, FanDuel).

Miami arrives at home 2-0 and ranked No. 5 after a 27-24 Week 1 win over Notre Dame and a follow-up victory over Bethune-Cookman. Quarterback Carson Beck has helped the Hurricanes remain in the national conversation, and bookmakers opened Miami as a sizable favorite off those results. Leboff noted Miami's upcoming schedule — including a home game against Florida next week — as a possible lookahead factor and pointed to USF's balanced early performance as justification for the points.

Leboff's second pick is Memphis at Troy, where the Tigers are short favorites at roughly 3.5 points (Memphis ‑3.5, ‑120). Troy nearly toppled Clemson in Week 2, controlling the first half before surrendering the game in the second half, and had earlier escaped an upset scare against Nicholls State that required a 28-point fourth-quarter run. Memphis, on the other hand, has produced consecutive productive offensive outings, scoring 45 points against Chattanooga in Week 1 and 38 against Georgia State last weekend. The Tigers' early offensive output and a reputation as one of 2024's underrated offenses were cited as reasons to expect Memphis to cover on the road.

Western Michigan rounds out the trio of recommended bets with the Broncos taking a large spread at Illinois (+27.5, ‑110). Illinois, coached by Bret Bielema, improved to 2-0 after outscoring Duke and Western Illinois by a combined 97-22, and the Illini enter the weekend with a marquee matchup against Indiana looming. Leboff labeled the Illinois game versus Western Michigan a classic lookahead spot and favored the Broncos for the points. Western Michigan lost 23-6 to Michigan State in Week 1 and then fell 33-30 in overtime to North Texas in Week 2, but showed signs of progress that, according to the column, make them a reasonable play getting more than three touchdowns in Champaign.

Leboff listed his Week 2 record as 3-0 and his overall 2025 record as 6-0 heading into Week 3. The New York Post identified him as an experienced sports bettor with a decade in the gambling industry; the column cited his use of game theory and market analysis to guide selections. Lines cited in the analysis include South Florida +17.5 (‑115, FanDuel), Memphis ‑3.5 (‑120), and Western Michigan +27.5 (‑110).

Oddsmakers and handicappers warned that spreads can move rapidly in the days leading to kickoff, particularly for games involving ranked teams or early-season surprises, and that injury reports, weather and late lineup decisions can affect betting value. The three selections reflect a mix of market observation and situational analysis: taking the points with a surging Group of 5 team at a ranked opponent, backing an offense that has produced early, and exploiting a perceived lookahead by a Power Five program.

The picks are wagering recommendations, not guarantees. Bettors are advised to confirm current lines and shop across books for the best prices before placing wagers, and to consider bankroll management when following any betting guide.