Week 5 College Football Predictions: Penn State-Oregon Set for marquee showdown

In Week 5, college football predictions center on a marquee matchup in Happy Valley as No. 3 Penn State hosts No. 6 Oregon in a prime-time clash that could serve as an early national championship preview. The Ducks and Nittany Lions met in last season’s Big Ten title game, a 45-37 Oregon win that helped shape the playoff picture before Penn State advanced deeper into the postseason. Penn State opened the season with a stronger outlook, returning quarterback Drew Allar and most of last year’s semifinalist core, but has not yet faced a true power opponent in three games against lesser competition. Oregon has looked sharp on paper, yet has not encountered a pulse opponent this season. The spread lists Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite, a line that reflects the atmosphere of a White Out and the challenge of slowing Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, who has five interceptions in three career road games against Power Five foes and has never played in a White Out environment.

Beyond the headliner, a slate of top-25 showdowns tests teams across the country and highlights how the landscape of college football has evolved. Florida State is favored by 6.5 points over Virginia after a string of dominant performances against lesser opposition. TCU sits as a 2.5-point underdog against Arizona State, with the Horned Frogs’ defense ranked highly in third-down conversion rate and a path to contending for a Big 12 title. USC is projected at -6.5 against Illinois as Jayden Maiava leads a high-powered offense while USC’s defense pressures opposing quarterbacks. Syracuse is a 5.5-point underdog at Duke, with Rickie Collins providing a spark as relief help in the quarterback room. Wake Forest is a 13.5-point underdog at Georgia Tech, testing the Demon Deacons’ road resilience. Notre Dame is favored by 4.5 over Arkansas, aiming to exploit a run defense that has shown vulnerability in recent weeks. Utah State travels to Vanderbilt as a 22.5-point underdog, while Washington is listed at +8.5 against Ohio State in a high-profile non-conference matchup. The slate also features LSU as a 1.5-point underdog against Ole Miss, Texas A&M as a 6.5-point favorite over Auburn, Iowa as a 7.5-point underdog at Indiana, Mississippi State at +7.5 against Tennessee, Arizona +6.5 at Iowa State, and Georgia as a 2.5-point favorite over Alabama.

The column’s best bets for the weekend are TCU, Arizona, and Georgia. For the season, the predictions run to 26-34 (5-7) in this cycle, with an overall 2014-24 record of 1,392-1,309-31. The notes also reflect a broader, longer-term arc about how conference realignment has altered the sport, increasing marquee matchups and expanding the regular season while posing new challenges for coaches and players.

As the weekend approach, fans can expect a robust slate with heated debates over spreads and choices that will add another layer of drama to games that already carry conference- and national implications. While outcomes remain uncertain, the weekend stands as a reminder of how Week 5 can shape early-season perception and possibly illuminate early contenders in a year reshaped by realignment and a crowded schedule.