WNBA Playoffs: First-Round Matchups Set as Parity Promises a Wide-Open Postseason
Top-seeded Lynx enter as favorites, Aces carry 16-game winning streak, and an expansion Valkyries team becomes the first to reach the playoffs in its inaugural season
The WNBA’s first-round playoff matchups are set after a record 44-game regular season, with eight teams beginning single-elimination series Sunday and league parity setting the stage for potential upsets.
Minnesota enters as the No. 1 seed after a 34-10 campaign and is widely regarded as the team to beat, but the season’s results and coaches say there are no easy paths to a title. Storm coach Noelle Quinn said the competitive balance this year has been unusual: “I’m not sure that I’ve seen anything like this year. Usually in previous years, at a certain point in the season, you know who the top tier is and it just hasn’t happened this year early. … Everyone has beaten everybody at some point.”
(1) Minnesota Lynx vs. (8) Golden State Valkyries — The Lynx (34-10) closed the regular season with one of the league’s stingiest defenses and swept Golden State in the regular season, outscoring the Valkyries by an average margin that helped expose the expansion club’s offensive inconsistency. Napheesa Collier has paced Minnesota at 23 points per game with 7.4 rebounds and 1.6 blocks. The Valkyries finished 23-21 in their first season and became the first expansion team in WNBA history to reach the playoffs. Golden State’s team shooting percentage ranked among the league’s lowest, and it averaged just 67.8 points in its four matchups with Minnesota.
The series hinges on Minnesota’s top-ranked defense versus Golden State’s 10th-ranked offense. The Lynx will also look to bench scoring from Natisha Hiedeman, who produced back-to-back strong outings against the Valkyries during the season. Regular-season matchups favored Minnesota, and two predictions accompanying the series project a swift result: Madeline Kenney picked the Lynx in two games, and Jeff Lehman made the same call.
(2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (7) Seattle Storm — Las Vegas finished 30-14 and closed the season on an extraordinary 16-game winning streak, a run that has carried momentum into the postseason. A’ja Wilson averaged 23.4 points, 10.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks during the regular season and averaged 26.1 points over the Aces’ final 16 games. Seattle (23-21) matched up evenly with the Aces in the regular season, splitting the four meetings.
The primary matchup will be whether any defender can contain Wilson consistently in a short series. Seattle’s Ezi Magbegor is among the frontcourt options tasked with that assignment, and rookie 6-foot-6 Dominique Malonga could see increased minutes as a size matchup. A secondary storyline is Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon’s late-season adjustment of moving All-Star Jewell Loyd to the bench, which coincided with the team’s winning surge; when Loyd is scoring, she remains a game-changer. Both Kenney and Lehman forecast the Aces to advance in two games, with Lehman projecting the streak to extend to 18.
(3) Atlanta Dream vs. (6) Indiana Fever — The Dream closed at 30-14 while the Fever reached the postseason at 24-20. The season series split 2-2. Atlanta’s defense was among the league’s best, allowing 76.8 points per game and leading the WNBA in total and defensive rebounds. Allisha Gray has been a primary scoring option for the Dream, averaging 18.4 points per game and converting beyond the arc at an efficient clip.
Indiana has continued to produce offensively even without Caitlin Clark available for much of the season, ranking third in team scoring at 84.9 points per game. Kelsey Mitchell has filled a scoring vacuum for the Fever, averaging 20.2 points and nearly 40% shooting from three. The Fever’s point-guard depth has tested coaches; Indiana is operating on its fourth-stringer at the position after midseason additions and injuries, while Atlanta’s Jordin Canada is returning from injury alongside rookie Te-Hina Paopao. Predictions are split on length: Kenney projects Atlanta in two, while Lehman expects the Dream to prevail but in three games.
(4) Phoenix Mercury vs. (5) New York Liberty — Phoenix and New York finished with identical 27-17 records, though the Mercury won three of four regular-season meetings. The matchup spotlights a frontcourt duel between Alyssa Thomas and Breanna Stewart. Thomas has been a force both scoring and creating, and she averaged line-jumping numbers against New York in the regular season, including near triple-double production. Stewart remains the Liberty’s primary offensive fulcrum, and New York’s Sabrina Ionescu paced the backcourt with playmaking output throughout the year.
Jonquel Jones, the Liberty’s 2024 Finals MVP, stands out as an X factor. Jones has been limited during the regular season and has made relatively few appearances; the Liberty’s ceiling in the series depends in part on which Jones shows up in the playoff window. The Liberty cited improved health late in the season, and one of the accompanying predictions favored New York in three games, while an alternate projection picked Phoenix to advance in three on the basis of Stewart’s ability to influence elimination games.
League-wide, analysts and coaches point to the season’s competitiveness as a defining characteristic. The balance of power, they say, makes first-round outcomes less predictable than in past years and raises the possibility of a dark-horse run. As the postseason opens, fans will be watching whether the Lynx’s defense and Wilson’s late-season dominance hold up in a compressed series format, whether expansion-era storylines like Golden State’s inaugural trip to the playoffs produce postseason drama, and how health returns and personnel adjustments shape matchups across the bracket. The four first-round series begin Sunday with all eight teams in action and will determine who advances into the later rounds of a playoff field that has been among the tightest in recent WNBA history.