Apple to Unveil Next iPhone as Trump-Era Tariffs Raise Prospect of Price Hikes
New models expected to be incremental as AI features stay delayed; analysts say 25% duties could push prices up $50–$100
Apple will unveil its next generation of iPhones on Tuesday as the company confronts a renewed U.S. trade push that could translate into higher prices for consumers.
The new phones are expected to be manufactured primarily in Apple’s hubs in China and India, even as the Biden administration’s predecessor pressed for onshore production. Imported iPhones continue to face duties of about 25%, prompting analysts to say Apple may raise retail prices by $50 to $100 on some models to protect profit margins. Since 2020, Apple has typically priced its base iPhone around $800 and top models near $1,200, and industry observers say a move to U.S.-only production would likely take years and could double or triple those figures.
Apple’s next lineup comes after this year’s preview of iOS 26 at the company’s developers conference in June, a naming choice that departs from earlier numerical conventions by reflecting the upcoming year. Expectations for the hardware refresh are modest: analysts and suppliers predict refinements in camera performance, battery life and a slightly redesigned chassis rather than a major technological leap.
The most notable potential addition is an ultra-thin model reportedly to be branded “Air,” a name Apple already uses for some iPad and Mac designs. Even so, several of the artificial intelligence-driven features Apple promised last year have been delayed. The iPhone 16, while popular, did not meet some sales forecasts after Apple postponed improvements to Siri and other AI capabilities; company officials have said some Siri enhancements have been pushed to next year.
Forrester Research analyst Thomas Husson said the incremental nature of recent updates and the lag on AI features are raising questions about Apple’s ability to keep pace in a fast-moving AI era. “Apple is reaching a tipping point, and I expect 2026 and 2027 to be pivotal years,” Husson said.
Apple’s chief executive, Tim Cook, has sought to blunt political pressure on production and tariffs by pledging tens of billions in U.S. investment and by other diplomatic gestures. Those efforts helped shield the company from the most severe proposed measures, but duties remain on devices imported into the United States and add uncertainty to pricing decisions.
Investors have weighed the company’s exposure to trade tensions and the pace of AI-driven innovation. Apple shares have been volatile this year but were down about 4% year to date before recent rebounds. The company also recently cleared a legal hurdle that preserves a multibillion-dollar arrangement keeping Google as the default search engine on iPhones, a payment stream analysts say supports Apple’s services revenue.
If Apple announces price increases when it unveils the new phones, the move would mark the first across-the-board rise in roughly five years and would come after rival Google held prices steady on its latest Pixel devices. Analysts caution that Apple’s margin calculus will factor in not only tariffs but consumer tolerance for higher prices amid broader economic pressures.
The company’s presentation will be closely watched for any signs that Apple can accelerate AI integration across its hardware and software lineup while navigating geopolitical pressures that affect where products are built and how much consumers pay. Until then, analysts expect Apple to deliver a familiar mix of engineering polish and restrained change rather than a disruptive redesign.