Could AI Create a World Without Work? Economists Discuss AI Abundance and the Path Forward

A best-case scenario for artificial intelligence is what economists call “AI abundance” — a future in which robots and software take on much of the busy work, leaving people with more free time while maintaining or expanding living standards. Proponents say AI could push productivity to a level where the economy can produce a much larger volume of goods and services, potentially making society wealthier than today. Anton Korinek, an economics professor at the University of Virginia and a Vox 2024 Future Perfect 50 pick, explained the idea on Vox’s Explain It to Me podcast. The conversation, edited for length, accompanies the full episode available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever podcasts are found.

Korinek argues that the question is not whether AI will disrupt work but how large the disruption will be and how society adapts. He draws a historical parallel to the Industrial Revolution, which began about 250 years ago and fundamentally altered how wealth was created. Before that era, land and natural resources largely determined production. Then machines—spun and woven textiles, steam engines, electricity—changed the bottleneck from land to the machinery that could be copied and replicated. This shift enabled mass production and, over generations, contributed to a dramatic rise in wealth in advanced economies. The transition was painful for workers who once did skilled, labor-intensive work; artisans who could be displaced by cheaper machines faced hardship, even as their descendants enjoyed cheaper textiles and the broader flood of affordable goods. With social protections, Korinek notes, disruption can be managed so that the gains eventually accrue to most people.

In discussing AI today, Korinek notes that the shift also involves cognitive tasks. Computers originally automated routine, calculative work; today, AI can perform more complex, thought-intensive tasks as well. The big question is where this trajectory will lead and whether it will leave large swaths of the workforce behind. He identifies human capital—the skills and knowledge workers bring to the economy—as the most valuable resource in modern production. If the world could routinely add an AI “worker” with a simple command, the economy might expand, but the distribution of those gains would determine whether everyone benefits.

To avoid a future in which abundance fails to translate into a universal standard of living, Korinek discusses a range of social protections and policy tools. Proposed options include some form of Universal Basic Income or compute allotments—allocations of computational resources that individuals could use or trade—and job guarantees. The overarching aim is to ensure that, as AI-driven productivity grows, no one is left behind and essential needs such as health care, housing, and income security remain stable.

Korinek cautions that disruption from AI will likely unfold gradually, not as a single dramatic upheaval. The pace and scale depend on how quickly technology advances, how society implements protections, and how policymakers address distributional concerns. This Vox series, which features an edited transcript of Korinek’s insights from Explain It to Me, was funded by Arnold Ventures, with Vox retaining editorial control.