Musk hails 9% drop in federal workers as spending data show limited impact of DOGE program
Data show federal employment fell about 9% this year, but watchdogs say spending increases and policy decisions limit the DOGE initiative’s effectiveness
WASHINGTON — Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk celebrated what he described as a year-end milestone in his push to shrink the federal workforce, citing government data showing the federal payroll fell by about 9% this year. Reuters reported that the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, compiled by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, show there were 2.744 million federal workers as of November, down from 3.015 million in January, when Musk launched his DOGE initiative as President Trump re-entered office. The roughly 271,000 who left include about 154,000 who took buyouts or were cut through mass terminations that hit agencies such as the former USAID, now eliminated. Musk marked the moment with the phrase, “The matrix was reprogrammed,” citing a graph produced by Cato Institute researchers Krit Chanwong and Alex Nowrasteh.
Analysts with the libertarian think tank noted that such a large decline in federal employment has not occurred since the postwar demobilizations after World War II and the Korean War. In a blog post, Cato scholars argued that while the workforce shrank, federal spending continued to rise and that DOGE’s work did not translate into lower outlays because most federal spending goes to entitlement programs and is governed by policy autopilot. An observer who did not know when DOGE started could not identify it in monthly spending charts, the researchers wrote, adding that DOGE failed to cut spending for structural reasons tied to entitlement programs. Congress alone has the authority to alter those programs, and changes in spending during DOGE’s tenure coincided with a series of rescissions.
On the spending front, Treasury data compiled by the St. Louis Fed show that the federal government spent about $7.6 trillion in 2025 through November, topping the roughly $7.412 trillion spent by Biden in the same period in 2024 and exceeding levels from 2023 ($6.5 trillion), 2022 ($6.27 trillion) and 2021 ($6.5 trillion). Analysts say higher interest rates, which rose in 2022 amid inflation and have since eased, have helped push up total outlays even as employment fell.
Observers note that the spending picture aligns with a string of policy actions rather than a direct line from DOGE. In July, Trump cut $9 billion in previously appropriated foreign aid, NPR and PBS; in September, he carried out another $5 billion foreign aid cut via a pocket rescission that did not go through Congress.
Trump has pledged to appoint a new Federal Reserve chairman in May who would pursue lower interest rates, arguing publicly that easing rates would save the government money because roughly 17% of federal spending goes toward servicing the national debt.
Former USAID workers and allies have held a vigil outside a former agency facility to protest foreign aid cuts, highlighting the human cost of shifting aid programs.
Taken together, the data paint a mixed picture: a sizable reduction in the federal civilian workforce and a high spending baseline that lawmakers continue to demand be preserved or expanded, with questions about what role, if any, a “DOGE” approach should play in U.S. policy going forward.