2028 race lines emerge at AmericaFest: Vance favored in GOP, Shapiro seen as Dem frontrunner
AmericaFest attendees see JD Vance as the likely GOP nominee and Josh Shapiro as the leading Democrat contender, signaling a possible clash between two younger governors and a potential reshaping of the electoral map.
PHOENIX — The 2028 presidential election is taking shape in early chatter from AmericaFest, where attendees predict a potential clash between two younger politicians: Vice President JD Vance as the odds-on Republican nominee and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as the leading Democrat contender. The exchange would pit Vance, 41, against Shapiro, 52, and could redefine the blue wall Trump shattered in 2024 by leveraging Shapiro’s name recognition in Pennsylvania to win back the state for Democrats.
Observers described a field shaped by lingering post-Trump dynamics, with a mix of loyalty to the former president and demand for new leadership. Vance emerged as the favored GOP bet among attendees, while Shapiro was cited as the Democrat most likely to carry the party’s banner, surpassing California Gov. Gavin Newsom in feasibility among the crowd. Shapiro has publicly said he isn’t pursuing a White House bid, telling HBO’s Bill Maher he is not an expert on Beltway politics and lives in the real world in Pennsylvania where we have to balance budgets. Still, his name circulated as a viable option in 2028.
Barbara, a voter from Camarillo, Calif., told Fox News Digital she hopes Vance steps into Trump’s shoes, calling him a great candidate who comes from the team that Trump built. She said Shapiro would be the Democrat most likely to beat Newsom if the two were in a head-to-head match.
Nick, from Nashville, named Shapiro as the most viable Democratic prospect. He predicted Newsom or Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez might be the nominee selected by the base, but said the Democratic National Committee would be smart if it facilitated a Shapiro nomination. He added that the conservative movement will stay alive after Trump, with future leaders largely aligned but still competing for influence. “Trump built the movement, and he’ll have a big hand in who wins in 2028,” he said.
I’m very much hoping [the Republicans choose] JD Vance or Marco Rubio,” Karen from Wisconsin said. “We have so many good conservatives that could come in and take over.” She also said she hopes youth engagement continues, and that someone will revive the conservative program.
On the Democratic side, Politico labeled Gavin Newsom as the 2028 frontrunner, a characterization that prompted mixed reactions among respondents. Karen predicted Newsom would try hard to lock in support, while Amy from Michigan imagined a race featuring Shapiro challenging Vance in a general election.
Amy from Michigan predicted that the Pennsylvanian would be the Democrats’ top pick in 2028, envisioning a contest between Vance and Shapiro for the presidency. Elizabeth from San Diego warned that Newsom might be trending as the nominee, even as she feared it could be him, rather than Shapiro or Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who had also been mentioned as a possible contender. Ed, from San Diego, predicted the Republican mantle would go to Vance or Rubio.
A representative for Shapiro’s 2026 gubernatorial re-election campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
AmericaFest attendees viewed the discourse as early, informal barroom chatter rather than official party guidance. The notes reflect a snapshot of speculation as the party coalitions angle for 2028, with Vance and Shapiro as the first names to dominate conversations, and with other potential nominees lingering in the background.
