A Government Shutdown Could Start Wednesday. Here's How It Could Affect Your Life.

A looming U.S. government shutdown could begin Wednesday if Congress fails to pass a stopgap funding bill before the Sept. 30 deadline, threatening delays across federal services and pay for hundreds of thousands of workers.

With lawmakers having departed Washington without a funding agreement, the odds of a shutdown have grown, even as past pattern suggests last-minute action is common. A memo from the White House Office of Management and Budget instructs agencies to begin drafting reduction-in-force plans that would permanently cut positions in programs that lack dedicated funding streams if funding remains unavailable after Oct. 1. The move marks a sharp departure from recent shutdowns, where disruptions were temporary and reversals possible once funding resumed. The memo reflects an escalating standoff that could give the White House unusual leverage in the budget fight as Democrats push for extended ACA subsidies and restoration of foreign aid and public broadcasting money that had been clawed back earlier this year.

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The funding deadline has left Democrats in a bind. Although Republicans control both chambers of Congress, at least seven Senate Democrats would need to vote for a stopgap to overcome a filibuster and pass a funding measure. Democratic leaders have demanded protections for Affordable Care Act subsidies and the restoration of aid programs that President Trump has sought to scale back. Trump has not met with Democratic leaders amid the standoff. The last government shutdown occurred in December 2018, during Trump’s first term, lasting 34 days and halting much government activity, the longest in the modern era.

How a shutdown could affect federal workers is a central concern. If the government shuts down, tens of thousands of federal employees would be furloughed and sent home without pay. Those deemed essential, such as public safety and national security personnel, would report to work but without pay until funding resumes. Once Congress restores funding, the government is required by law to back-pay federal employees and military personnel. Federal contractors would not be compensated for missed work, and the new approach from the White House adds the possibility of permanent job cuts in programs that lack steady funding.

The potential disruption to air travel has drawn particular attention. Airports are among the clearest pressure points in a shutdown because Transportation Security Administration agents and air traffic controllers are considered essential and would keep working without pay. In previous stoppages, some TSA officers reported sick days and longer lines, while air traffic delays occurred on the East Coast due to staffing gaps. A shutdown could magnify these effects, especially if morale falls or staffing becomes uneven across facilities.

Programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid operate on funding streams that are typically protected during shutdowns. While those agencies would continue to operate, some services could be pared back. The Social Security Administration and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services are funded through mechanisms that typically keep them running, but field offices have previously reduced operations, delaying new card issuances and benefit verifications. The overall effect on beneficiaries could hinge on how long a shutdown lasts and how agencies prioritize services during the lapse.

Veterans programs may see limited impact, given that much of the Veterans Health Administration is financed through advance appropriations. However, administrative functions outside the health system and some benefits processing could face delays if funding is not immediately restored.

Food assistance programs could feel the sting as well. The White House has noted that funding for the Women, Infants and Children program could run out for new applicants starting Oct. 1 if Congress has not provided additional appropriations. That could mean immediate limits on enrolling new beneficiaries, even as ongoing benefits for existing participants continue for a time. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program would continue as mandatory spending, but the Agriculture Department would be authorized to issue benefits for a limited 30 days after a shutdown begins if funding is not renewed, potentially affecting program administration in the longer term.

National parks and other federally funded sites would close or operate at reduced capacity during a shutdown. Travelers could lose access to parks and some Smithsonian facilities in Washington, with the National Park Service having estimated earlier shutdowns caused hundreds of millions in lost visitor spending. The Postal Service, which funds itself through its own revenues, would continue mail delivery and package services during a lapse, while immigration enforcement would continue at a reduced pace, as ICE and CBP remain prioritized for frontline duty; however, court hearings for immigration cases that rely on Justice Department appropriations could be delayed.

If lawmakers fail to enact funding by Oct. 1, the government would formally shut down. A stopgap funding bill, if eventually approved, would resume operations and restoration of pay after a period of lapse. The dynamics of the standoff—between a White House signaling permanent cuts and lawmakers negotiating the scope of spending—could have implications for the balance of budgetary power in the long term, potentially shaping how Congress and the administration approach federal priorities in the weeks and months ahead.

Analysts note the stakes extend beyond immediate disruptions. A shutdown would affect not only government operations but also local economies that depend on federal workers and travelers who visit national parks and museums. While some services would remain in operation, the broader impact would be felt through delayed services, reduced hours, and the possibility of longer wait times for assistance.

In the lead-up to Oct. 1, the public-facing consequences of a shutdown are likely to unfold in real-time as agencies publish guidance on what will be paused and what will continue. The outcome remains uncertain as of now, with political maneuvering continuing on Capitol Hill and pressure mounting from both sides to avoid or leverage the disruption. The next days will determine whether the government can avert a shutdown or whether millions of Americans will experience the ripple effects of a federal funding lapse.