Badenoch narrows gap with Farage as UK poll signals hung-right, hung-left dynamics

A Christmas poll published ahead of the holidays shows Kemi Badenoch's Conservative Party closing the gap with Nigel Farage's Reform UK to three points, with the Tories on 22% and Reform on 25%, according to an end-of-year analysis by Lord Ashcroft. The data indicate that Badenoch's improved Commons performances and new policy ideas are starting to cut through with voters, even as Reform slips from a previous lead. In the survey, Reform's advantage narrowed from seven points a month earlier, and the Conservative climb comes as both sides seek to consolidate après-summer momentum.

Labour remains in fourth place, a point behind Zack Polanski's Greens, underscoring a two-front contest in which the left could potentially unite to challenge the right. Aggregated party scores put a united left bloc at about 47% of the vote, roughly the same as the combined support for the Conservatives and Reform UK, highlighting the fragility of any single-party governing majority if the right fails to unite. The findings map a year-end mood in which voters foresee a hung or precarious path to power depending on who can stitch together coalitions rather than win outright majorities. [IMAGE_PLACEHOLDER]

In policy terms, Badenoch has sought to soothe backbench nerves by presenting a more cohesive program, including proposed abolition of stamp duty and the scrapping of the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars after 2030. The shift comes as she works to distinguish her party from a turbulent recent period and to offer a plausible alternative to Labour’s leadership. The polling snapshot suggests voters are listening, but also wary about whether the Conservative revival is sustainable or simply a moment of tactical support ahead of a potential general election.

Yet doubts linger about Reform UK’s ability to govern beyond the “Nigel Farage show.” Only 17% of respondents said Farage has enough talent to form an administration, while 60% disagreed. The scepticism helps explain why Badenoch’s party has inched ahead despite ongoing questions about whether Reform can transition from a protest movement into a credible governing force. The data underscore a broader reality in Western politics: when the right remains divided, the left can exploit unity to hold or regain power.

The political weather is further complicated by attitudes toward the timing of a general election. A total of 39% of respondents would like a ballot next year, while 26% prefer to wait until 2029, the latest legally permissible window. Among Labour’s base, however, appetite for an early election is tempered by leadership questions and potential changes in the party's lineup. Roughly half of Labour voters want Ms Rayner back in Cabinet following her resignation over stamp duty issues, but only 26% of all voters share that view. Such splits illustrate why this poll has become a touchstone for how both major blocs might recalibrate ahead of any formal electoral contest.

Public sentiment about party leadership remains volatile. Farage continues to top several festive-mood rankings—items such as who voters would most like to spend New Year’s Eve with and who would cause the most Christmas-party drama—while Keir Starmer trails in those same lighthearted metrics. Badenoch, by contrast, is viewed more favorably for practical tasks, with many voters seeing her as someone who could help clear up after Christmas lunch, even as the public remains wary about the durability of a Conservative revival.

Economically, the poll paints a sober picture: 38% expect they will have less money to spend on presents this year, while 11% anticipate being more generous with their spending. These headwinds help explain why voters are paying close attention to which party can responsibly manage the economy in the next parliament.

The survey polled 5,195 voters from December 11 to December 15. In a political environment where the right might gain or lose ground on a week-to-week basis, the Ashcroft analysis suggests that the next political chapter could hinge on party unity, policy clarity, and the ability of any governing bloc to translate polling momentum into durable electoral support.

In the United Kingdom-focused polling landscape, the dynamics have drawn comparisons with broader Western political debates, including discussions in U.S. politics about coalition-building, party fragmentation, and the risks of effective governance in a divided electorate. The end-of-year numbers therefore matter not only for Britain’s parties but for observers watching how right-left power balances may evolve in liberal democracies facing economic and social headwinds.