Badenoch narrows gap with Reform UK as UK political landscape tightens, poll finds
End-of-year survey puts Conservatives at 22%, Reform UK at 25%, with Labour and Greens close behind; left coalition could match Tory-Reform bloc at 47%
A year-end political poll in the United Kingdom shows Kemi Badenoch closing the gap with Nigel Farage's Reform UK to three points, with Badenoch's Conservative Party at 22% and Reform UK at 25% of voter support. The end-of-year survey was conducted by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft and surveyed 5,195 voters from December 11 to December 15.
Officials note Reform's seven-point lead from a month earlier has narrowed, underscoring the fragility of the right-leaning vote and the possibility that a left-leaning coalition could challenge Labour's position. The poll also shows that, when the Left's Greens and Liberal Democrats are considered together, they would command about 47% of the vote, roughly matching the 47% support for the Tory-Reform bloc.
Labour sits in fourth place, about one point behind Zack Polanski's Greens, according to the poll. Greens are estimated at about 23%, with Labour at around 22%. If the Right fails to unite, the left-wing bloc could hold 47% of votes, leaving a path to power if their coalition coalesces.
Badenoch has sought to project credibility by delivering more assured public performances and signaling a policy package that includes abolishing stamp duty on property purchases and scrapping the ban on selling new petrol and diesel cars after 2030. The poll also raises questions about Reform's ability to govern beyond the campaign cycle; just 17% of respondents said Farage has enough talent to form an administration, while 60% disagreed.
Voter appetite for an election remains high: 39% prefer a ballot next year, while 26% want to wait until 2029. Among Labour voters, 51% would like Angela Rayner back in the Cabinet following her stamp-duty resignation; among the general electorate, 26% believe she would make a worse prime minister than Sir Keir Starmer. In festive questions, Farage leads on who voters would most like to spend New Year’s Eve with, while Starmer is described as most likely to give a boring speech. Badenoch is seen as most likely to help clear up after Christmas lunch and the most popular choice for a kiss under the mistletoe.
Economy remains a clear concern as the holiday season approaches: 38% say they will have less money to spend on presents this year, and 11% say they will be more generous. The poll surveyed 5,195 voters from December 11 to 15.