CBO Under Fire as Congress Debates Tax Breaks and Spending Cuts

In the midst of a charged partisan fight over Republicans sweeping tax breaks and spending cuts, the Congressional Budget Office’s nonpartisan scoring has become a focal point. CBO Director Phillip Swagel says the agency’s mission is to inform Congress and the country, not to advocate for a particular path, even as critics from both parties question its assumptions and conclusions.

Swagel, who has led the agency since 2019 after stints in both Republican and Democratic administrations, emphasizes that the work is about accuracy rather than agenda. The staff of economists and analysts assess how legislation would affect economic growth, deficits and the long-run trajectory of programs like Social Security and Medicare, providing scores lawmakers rely on.

The current policy environment brings new testing ground for the CBO model. Trump’s sweeping tariff plan marks a shift away from a long period of relatively low tariffs, and the agency says it will carefully evaluate whether its standard models still apply when tariffs are this large. The CBO estimates that tariffs could reduce the national deficit by about $4 trillion over the next decade, helping offset the deficit increases tied to the big bill passed this year. It also projects roughly two years of higher inflation as tariffs rise, with the inflationary effect expected to be temporary and then stabilizing at a higher price level.

On immigration, Swagel notes that immigrants have broadened the labor force, boosted GDP and increased federal revenue, which helps the federal deficit. At the same time, there are costs at state and local levels for schools, policing, health care and other services. The CBO says immigration is a fiscal positive for the federal government, but it can add to fiscal pressures for subnational governments. Trump’s mass deportations and other hard-line measures would remove roughly 320,000 people over the next decade, according to the CBO, while the tax and spending law signed this year includes about $150 billion to ramp up deportations over four years.

The CBO also notes that the nation’s entitlement programs are on an unsustainable long-term trajectory. The trustees project go-broke dates for Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund around 2033 and Social Security around 2034, after which the programs would face limits on benefits if no action is taken. Swagel says the economy is stable and still growing, even if growth slows in the second half of 2025, and that there is no immediate crisis. Difficult decisions will have to be made, but the clock is not suddenly running out.

The budget office has faced sharper attacks as Trump’s second term has unfolded, often echoed by some fellow Republicans. Swagel downplays the personal friction, saying the working relationship with the executive branch remains smooth and routine, and that every major measure triggers calls to the relevant agencies to review numbers. There is incoming fire on the CBO, he acknowledges, but he frames it as part of the political process. He also notes that the CBO director cannot be fired by the president; removal requires Congress.

The bottom line, Swagel says, is that the CBO’s work remains crucial for the country. A nonpartisan lens that lays out costs and consequences is needed even as lawmakers wrestle with what to do next. The agency does not tell lawmakers what to do; it provides the facts and the projections so policy choices can be weighed against a clear fiscal footing.