CNN data chief: Democrats haven’t picked up the ball on three key issues as GOP edges ahead on economy, immigration and crime

Democrats are lagging behind Republicans on three top national issues, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten, who told CNN's Kate Bolduan that the ball may be on the ground but Democrats have not picked it up or run with it. He noted that the public currently trusts Republicans more on the economy, immigration and crime, a dynamic reflected in polling ahead of the midterm elections. The discussion comes as President Donald Trump's position on those issues has faced a net negative reading in recent surveys.

Enten cited a Washington Post-Ipsos poll showing Republicans trusted more than Democrats on the three issues by margins of 7 points on the economy, 13 on immigration and 22 on crime. He noted that Trump has had a net approval rating underwater on those topics, a trend highlighted earlier in the month. By comparison, in 2022 the same poll showed the GOP ahead on the economy by 12 points, but Democrats led on immigration by 3 and on crime by 13, suggesting Republicans have narrowed those margins over the past two years. Independents currently trust Republicans more than Democrats on all three issues: economy by 1 point, immigration by 10 and crime by 21.

Enten argued that the discrepancy between public sentiment on Trump and on Democrats may complicate the party's efforts to gain traction. He said Democrats should consider sharpening their economic message and focusing on policies that voters believe would improve their lives, since voters' perception of who handles the economy best can shape midterm outcomes. He also emphasized that independents—who currently tilt toward Republicans on all three issues—will be pivotal in November, and that Democratic messaging must bridge that gap if the party hopes to turn these opinions into votes.

The numbers highlight a central challenge for Democrats heading into the midterms: while national sentiment toward Trump remains negative on these issues, voters are not uniformly aligning with Democrats on the policy questions many cite as most consequential. Analysts say the best path for Democrats may involve a credible, concrete plan to improve economic conditions and address concerns on immigration and crime, in addition to broader efforts to counter Republican messaging. The WaPo-Ipsos polling snapshot suggests that, at this moment, Republicans hold a sustained advantage on the three issues most likely to influence voter decisions in November, and the party will need to demonstrate tangible improvements to close the gap.