CSIS analysis shows left-wing domestic terrorism outpaced right-wing attacks through July 4, first time since 1994
Five left-wing attacks and one right-wing attack counted through July 4; researchers caution that the trend could be temporary and that several incidents were excluded for definitional reasons.
Left-wing terrorists were behind more domestic attacks in the United States through July 4 than right-wing extremists, the first such tally since 1994, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis of the past three decades.
CSIS counted five left-wing attacks in the period up to July 4, with only one right-wing incident in the same window—the June murder of Minnesota state lawmaker Melissa Hortman and her husband. The study notes that several high-profile cases fall outside the cutoff, including the murder of Charlie Kirk in Utah on Sept. 10, which CSIS says is not included because it occurred after July 4. It also excludes the arson of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s home, the killing of two Israeli Embassy workers in Washington, and the firebombing of a pro-Israel rally in Boulder, Colorado, because those incidents were tied to the Israel-Palestine conflict rather than to a clearly left- or right-wing political motive in the United States.
Expanding the data to the past decade shows left-wing attacks killed 13 victims, compared with 112 victims from right-wing attackers and 82 victims from jihadist attacks. CSIS notes that left-wing attacks have historically been far less lethal than right-wing or jihadist violence, but they emphasize that the recent increase in left-wing incidents is significant because left-wing plots have more often occurred in a completed form rather than being foiled before execution.
The CSIS report highlights several reasons for shifting patterns in domestic extremism. It notes that right-wing extremists may have fewer immediate grievances to mobilize around in recent years, a change the study describes as striking but speculative. One possibility, the report says, is that many traditional right-wing grievances—such as opposition to abortion, hostility toward immigration, and distrust of government agencies—are now framed in support of or aligned with the rhetoric of the Trump administration. The analysis cautions, however, that the decline in far-right terrorism is probably temporary and should not be interpreted as a lasting trend.
Law-enforcement dynamics also figure into the picture. The study observes that authorities appear to be catching far-right attackers more often before they can carry out attacks. Despite that, CSIS notes that left-wing plots have a higher rate of completion, elevating the significance of the recent rise in incidents because it increases the likelihood of violence actually occurring.
The CSIS report defines terrorism as attacks carried out with the intent to achieve political goals by creating a broad psychological impact. It also cautions that categorizing attacks by left or right does not necessarily map to the Democratic or Republican parties; instead, the authors say the motivation and goals behind each attack are the more meaningful criteria for classification.
As the data accumulate, researchers say the picture of political violence in the United States remains complex. While the year has shown a notable uptick in left-wing activity by the CSIS measure, experts stress that the overall scale remains far smaller than the worst periods of right-wing extremism in the 1990s and 2000s. The report ends with a forward-looking note that more findings are forthcoming as additional cases are collected and analyzed, suggesting that the trend could evolve in ways that are difficult to predict.