Enrollment declines push districts toward school closures as communities grapple with impact

Enrollment declines are forcing districts to consider closing schools, a move that could reshape urban neighborhoods and stretch budgets. St. Louis Public Schools is among districts weighing how many urban schools to keep open as enrollments shrink, budgets tighten, and a growing school choice movement shifts where families enroll their kids. The trend is visible nationwide, with districts in Philadelphia, Boston, Houston and Norfolk evaluating shuttering schools, while public pressure temporarily halted moves in Seattle and San Francisco.

In St. Louis, the district’s student population has fallen dramatically since the 1960s, from 115,543 in 1967 to 18,122 last year. Tornado damage this spring intensified the strain as two schools in the Ville neighborhood did not reopen this fall. Consultants told the school board that the district cannot support all its aging campuses, and closing some could free money for improvements. Yet board member Donna Jones warned that closures would deepen the trauma in neighborhoods already battered by disaster and disinvestment. The Ville has long been home to a historically Black community with notable ties to the city’s cultural legacy, including high schools that once counted Tina Turner and Chuck Berry among its alumni. Sumner High School, a landmark in the tradition, is part of the closure debate. Nearby, a former arts program helped draw students back when Sumner was considered for closure years ago, including efforts to showcase the school’s history and notable figures such as Arthur Ashe.

National data show enrollment declines across the country, with a Fordham Institute analysis finding that about 5,100 schools fell 20 percent or more in enrollment between 2019 and 2023. The National Center for Education Statistics projects a 5.5 percent decline in public school enrollment from 2022 to 2031, driven by shifting demographics, families moving to private schools or homeschooling, and some immigrant families leaving the country. Some observers note that federal relief funding during the COVID-19 era kept underpopulated schools afloat, but those dollars are gone and the structural challenge remains. A reform advocate cautions that enrollment has a long arc of decline and policymakers must adapt to the new reality.

The trend echoes a period of upheaval in Chicago, which shuttered around 50 schools in 2013—the largest wave of closures in U.S. history. Afterward, displaced students faced disruptions as they settled into new schools, and test scores dipped in the schools slated for closure, with math performance remaining an issue for years. Under pressure from a powerful teachers union, Chicago later placed a moratorium on closures through 2027. Across many cities, roughly a third of classroom seats sit empty in underenrolled schools.

Back in St. Louis, Sumner High School, founded more than a century ago, stands at the center of the debate about preserving neighborhood anchors in the Ville. Tornado damage plus ongoing neighborhood decline have intensified concerns about whether the district can maintain Sumner without draining other campuses. A coalition of local nonprofits and arts groups helped save Sumner four years ago by expanding its arts curriculum, turning school lockers into museum displays honoring notable alumni such as Arthur Ashe. The project helped spark renewed interest in the school; students who had once faced disciplinary issues found purpose in projects tied to the school’s history. One former student who now attends the University of Missouri described how Sumner helped her get back on track through participation in movie making, choir, junior ROTC and student council, while a volunteer teacher noted the community’s resilience despite widespread neglect. District staffers say the fate of Sumner remains unresolved, and officials have been quiet about when a final decision might come.

The debate has also sharpened tensions inside the local teachers union. Union leaders argue that closing Sumner or other long-standing schools would strip away anchors in vulnerable communities and worsen trauma for students already dealing with disaster consequences. The district faces the heavy task of balancing the needs of tens of thousands of students with aging facilities and tightening budgets, a challenge that will likely shape school policy well into the next decade. As enrollment declines persist, many communities will continue to confront hard questions about how to allocate finite resources while preserving access to safe, welcoming schools that can support students’ futures.